Center for Uncertainty Studies Blog

Andreas Zick (Scientific Director of the IKG) at the Conference "Navigating Uncertainty - Preparing Society for the Future" in 2023. © Universität Bielefeld / Philipp Ottendörfer

CeUS was founded about two years ago – What are your highlights so far?

The highlight for me is that we have established a rapid framework for exploring the depths of uncertainty. Since 2013, I am scientific Director of the Institute for Interdisciplinary Research on Conflict and Violence (IKG) at Bielefeld University, and I have rarely witnessed colleagues coming together so swiftly across disciplinary, methodological, and theoretical boundaries to engage in a compelling research topic. Researchers also seem to be seeking a sense of security. Another significant highlight was my observation that new facets and layers of uncertainty continually emerge at the events we organize, revealing innovative modes of navigation. Additionally, I had the opportunity to lead guided tours of the exhibition "Taking a Stand" at the Kunsthalle Bielefeld, which showcased the works of Käthe Kollwitz and Mona Hatoum. Both artists address the experiences of individuals living in uncertainty—those affected by war, authoritarian regimes, and unjust power dynamics. Thanks to CeUS and the concepts surrounding the visualization of uncertainty, I gained a deeper understanding of the paintings and sculptures on display. For instance, Mona Hatoum creates large, robust-looking cages made of iron. By examining this art by exploring uncertainty, it becomes evident how fragile these works truly are and how unpredictable the violence that affects individuals can be, even though she does not depict people directly. Interestingly, highlights themselves are a fascinating manifestation of uncertainty; they shine brightly precisely because we do not anticipate them.

What role does Uncertainty play in your research?

In conflict and violence research, we encounter many uncertainties and insecurities - fortunately, in German we have two words for what English-language research understands as "uncertainty". We have researched uncertainties well because conflicts within and between societies go hand in hand with uncertainties. As part of our research into uncertainty, which is characterised more by uncertainty about facts and future developments, we have now drilled deeper, since we take uncertainty-research more seriously. For example, we used data from a representative population study in spring 2023 - known as the Mitte Study - to analyse the influence of crisis uncertainty and crisis insecurity on attitudes towards democracy. We found that people in Germany who are uncertain due to polycrises - i.e. interconnected crises such as inflation, climate change and other crises - use two modes to assess the state of democracy: Some want to close the country, set borders and argue in favour of "Germany first", so to speak. Others argue in favour of opening to advice from outside and appeal for solidarity with those who are more affected by crises. Those in lockdown mode are also in favour of opening up but would like to do so in order to strengthen the nation. Those who open to uncertainty in crises rely on the power of democracy and are less concerned with themselves. They are also much more crisis-proof. That is one example. In research into violence, we have also done a lot of research into how people deal with uncertainty. Violence creates uncertainty for the victims of violence and uncertainty is an instrument of violence, but a controlled instrument by the offender. These are just a few examples. We must also recognise that in the past, particularly in social sciences, we have perhaps applied too simple a view of human nature and too narrow a methodological paradigm: We have tended to assume that people seek control first because they find uncertainty unpleasant and threatening. We have assumed that states strive for maximum control because people seek to tame uncertainty. We have tended to use methods that can make good predictions with probability models and have been annoyed when data is fraught with uncertainty. The radical uncertainty research that we want to develop at CeUS emphasises the opportunities of uncertainty and asks openly and with interest how uncertainty is navigated so that it changes.

To what extent is interdisciplinarity important in your work?

I am the worst possible interviewee to answer this question. I head an interdisciplinary institute and forbid myself from taking a narrow, disciplinary view. My professorship is in educational science, I did my doctorate and habilitation in psychology and I have spent many years researching in the social sciences, so I am also a co-opted member of the Faculty of Sociology. Does that unsettle you? Too little disciplinary excellence? I am glad that we are opening up to more disciplines in conflict and violence research. What we observe and even what we can recognize as science is shaped by history. Bielefeld is a place of interdisciplinarity, and the buildings alone force us to constantly cross paths with people from other faculties and institutes and communicate. We are concerned with conflict dynamics and the question of how groups in conflict perceive, ignore, utilize, create, and overcome uncertainty to assert their interests, identities, and values. Most conflict dynamics have developed historically, so I need expertise in the field of history. Structural conditions are often decisive, for example, when conflicts arise because of limited resources. Therefore, I require expertise in sociology. I could go through other disciplines and, basically, we also need methodological expertise because our statistical models must deal with uncertainties.

What would you like to accomplish at the Center for Uncertainty Studies in the future?

It should be a virtual and real space where we come together as researchers from all over the world and from all disciplinary perspectives and establish uncertainty research. I believe that uncertainty research has the potential to become a field of research similar to interdisciplinary conflict and violence research. I have already accompanied the development of research fields such as migration, acculturation, right-wing extremism or prejudice and racism research and, based on this experience, I am confident in the matter. Uncertainty research does not fall out of the sky. It builds on knowledge, not least on research into risks or security. In my opinion, the fact that it has potential also results from what is likely to come. In times when, for example, technology and natural science have reached the point where they want to allow even more uncertainty - think of AI or autonomous driving - and in times when crises are again increasingly accompanied by wars, as well as times when climate change is progressing faster than scientific models and findings, it is perhaps appropriate to establish this field of research. Or to put it another way: it would be wrong not to deal with uncertainty, which is not the opposite of certainty and risk minimisation.

To sum it up: Do you have specific strategies in your personal or professional life to deal with uncertainty?

I didn't become a researcher because I was looking for certainty, but because many things were uncertain for me; quite independently of the question of how secure the job is. But perhaps uncertainty also attracts me more, because in conflict and violence research we meet people who live in massive insecurity and uncertainty; think of migrants who set off on their journey. I learn from them. It hurts even more that they tend to be seen as a risk by society. And my strategy of building spaces such as CeUS myself and not waiting until you get research spaces has certainly been a good one. I've already built a few rooms and almost never with collateral. 

Thank you very much!