Uncertainties and Policy Support: A Brief Look at The Two Ongoing Studies at Bielefeld University
by Elif Sandal Önal & Andreas Zick
Independent of legal and structural effects, governmental and political decisions taken during crises or emergencies are received and interpreted through different cognitive and emotional dynamics of citizens (Maor & Capelos, 2023). These lead to support or rejection of policies. The processing of the information relevant to policies also differs, at least, depending on the psychological underpinnings that refer to individual differences (McDermott, 2019) and the characteristics of the crisis context like the level of emergency (Albertson & Gadarian, 2015) or on the way the issue of the policy is framed (e.g., Esses et al., 2013). Intersecting all these factors, uncertainty and the navigation of uncertainties, linked to cognitive and affective dynamics, is of utmost importance, particularly during crises (Zick & Sandal-Önal, 2023). A clear definition of uncertainties and a reliable analysis of the navigation help understand citizens' support for policies. This is also crucial since general modes of navigation are needed in times of global and interlinked polycrises. Two research projects we are conducting in IKG provide different lenses to different facets of uncertainty regarding public support for government policies in Germany. The findings indicate the cruciality of individual and collective uncertainties on political attitudes and behaviors, particularly during crises and emergencies.
Understanding the role of uncertainty in different political groups' policy support
"I do not know what war means": Understanding emotional and informational uncertainty in support of the German government's military policies during the war in Ukraine.
Interestingly, emotional and informational uncertainty about war indicates lower support for military policies, while uncertainty about peace indicates the opposite. Further analyses show that respondents who have high emotional uncertainty do not support military policies because they consider Russia a threat to Europe and are concerned that the war might be expanded. However, this is not the case for those who report high uncertainty about the war. On the other hand, considering Russia as a threat to Europe also explains the relationship between peace uncertainty and higher support for military policies. So, people do not know how to restore peace, considering Germany's military support policies to Ukraine would decrease the Russian threat towards Europe. The scientific report of the study is in progress, while the uncertainty-related findings were presented at various conferences (e.g., Sandal-Önal, Ayanian, et al., 2023).
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