Center for Uncertainty Studies Blog

Published on 10. November 2023

Category Research News

Tags: biefrie climate covid ikg policy research survey uncertainty war

Uncertainties and Policy Support: A Brief Look at The Two Ongoing Studies at Bielefeld University

by Elif Sandal Önal & Andreas Zick

Independent of legal and structural effects, governmental and political decisions taken during crises or emergencies are received and interpreted through different cognitive and emotional dynamics of citizens (Maor & Capelos, 2023). These lead to support or rejection of policies. The processing of the information relevant to policies also differs, at least, depending on the psychological underpinnings that refer to individual differences (McDermott, 2019) and the characteristics of the crisis context like the level of emergency (Albertson & Gadarian, 2015) or on the way the issue of the policy is framed (e.g., Esses et al., 2013). Intersecting all these factors, uncertainty and the navigation of uncertainties, linked to cognitive and affective dynamics, is of utmost importance, particularly during crises (Zick & Sandal-Önal, 2023). A clear definition of uncertainties and a reliable analysis of the navigation help understand citizens' support for policies. This is also crucial since general modes of navigation are needed in times of global and interlinked polycrises. Two research projects we are conducting in IKG provide different lenses to different facets of uncertainty regarding public support for government policies in Germany. The findings indicate the cruciality of individual and collective uncertainties on political attitudes and behaviors, particularly during crises and emergencies.

Understanding the role of uncertainty in different political groups' policy support

The first project investigates the social-psychological dynamics of supporting or opposing government policies on the hot-debated issues of coronavirus measures, climate change, and migration. Here, different from the methodologies in policy research, we focused on the individual and group-level dynamics of policy support and tested how uncertainty influences individuals' support for these specific policies. Through an online survey with 300 participants (123 female, five diverse, mean age is 31.52), we asked several questions to people to reveal their support for specific COVID-19 measures (general support for the measures in the peak of pandemic, support for wearing masks and vaccination, and the intentions to join a protest against the measures), climate policies, and migration policies. We also asked them whether they were uncertain of their knowledge about these specific policies, the future of themselves and close others, social cohesion, and the world in general.

The study first reveals two uncertainties reported by the participants: the issue-based or informational uncertainty refers to the lack of knowledge about the issues subject to policies in question, and the relational or general uncertainty involves concerns about the future, about social cohesion in Germany and the world as a whole. Expectedly, two uncertainties are positively related. The findings demonstrate interesting interrelations between the variables: The relationship between the uncertainty of knowledge about COVID-19 measures and climate policies is positive, so those who are uncertain about COVID-19 measures are also uncertain about their knowledge of climate policies. As expected, those uncertain about the future and the world support climate policies more. On the other hand, being uncertain about the societal cohesion in Germany is related to a lower support to the government policies about migration. Naturally, public support for government policies during the crises depends on different contextual dynamics like political trust (Macdonald, 2021; Robinson et al., 2021; Weinberg, 2022) or political party preferences or ideologies (Cohen, 2003; McCright & Dunlap, 2011; Unsworth & Fielding, 2014). For this study, we tested whether different uncertainties influence the relationship between political positions and policy support, considering uncertainty impacts individuals' political evaluations (Haas et al., 2020). The findings demonstrate that it is the issue-based or informational uncertainty that has a strengthening impact on this relationship. In other words, the correspondence between individuals' political positions (left or right) and their policy support is getting stronger when they are uncertain about the policy-relevant issues. General or relational uncertainties involving the future, social cohesion, or the world have no influence.

The study is ongoing, and the first results were presented at the International Conference on Navigating Uncertainty: Preparing Society for the Future in June 2023 at Bielefeld University (Sandal-Önal, Hellmann & Zick, 2023).

"I do not know what war means": Understanding emotional and informational uncertainty in support of the German government's military policies during the war in Ukraine.

The Bielefeld Peace Study (BIEFrie) was launched in May 2022 to understand the public attitudes in German society towards the ongoing war in Ukraine with an online survey. 1048 participants (571 female, mean age is 44), mostly from West Germany and with high education, were asked whether they support the German government's policies regarding military support for Ukraine, in addition to the items about the uncertainty on war, peace, and future. Starting from the outbreak of war, the social and political context on the agenda all over Europe was characterized by emergencies and crises (mostly related to resources like energy) expected to fuel a collective uncertainty shared at all levels of society. This collective uncertainty not only appears in the form of a collective emotion portrayed by fear, anxiety, and helplessness before an unknown future but also in an informational dimension whereby people declare their lack of knowledge about the ongoing crises. For this study, we answered whether the support for military-political policies of the German government is related to these collective uncertainties.

The vast majority of the respondents reported having high emotional and informational uncertainty. 75% stated that they are uncertain what the future will look like, while 40% said they are uncertain about what war means, and nearly 55% declared their lack of knowledge about the real reasons for the ongoing war in Ukraine. Considering how to bring peace back again, 47% reported that they have no idea how to restore peace. On the other hand, the majority of participants reported their support for Germany's military actions in favor of Ukraine.

Interestingly, emotional and informational uncertainty about war indicates lower support for military policies, while uncertainty about peace indicates the opposite. Further analyses show that respondents who have high emotional uncertainty do not support military policies because they consider Russia a threat to Europe and are concerned that the war might be expanded. However, this is not the case for those who report high uncertainty about the war. On the other hand, considering Russia as a threat to Europe also explains the relationship between peace uncertainty and higher support for military policies. So, people do not know how to restore peace, considering Germany's military support policies to Ukraine would decrease the Russian threat towards Europe. The scientific report of the study is in progress, while the uncertainty-related findings were presented at various conferences (e.g., Sandal-Önal, Ayanian, et al., 2023).

References

Albertson, B., & Gadarian, S. K. (2015). Anxious Politics: Democratic Citizenship in a Threatening World. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139963107

Cohen, G. L. (2003). Party Over Policy: The Dominating Impact of Group Influence on Political Beliefs. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 85(5), 808–822. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.85.5.808

Esses, V. M., Medianu, S., & Lawson, A. S. (2013). Uncertainty, Threat, and the Role of the Media in Promoting the Dehumanization of Immigrants and Refugees: Dehumanization of Immigrants and Refugees. Journal of Social Issues, 69(3), 518–536. https://doi.org/10.1111/josi.12027

Haas, I. J., Baker, M. N., & Gonzalez, F. J. (n.d.). Political uncertainty moderates neural evaluation of incongruent policy positions.

Macdonald, D. (2021). Political Trust and Support for Immigration in the American Mass Public. British Journal of Political Science, 51(4), 1402–1420. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123419000668

Maor, M., & Capelos, T. (2023). Symposium: Affect and emotions in policy dynamics. Policy Sciences, 56(3), 439–448. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-023-09512-7

McCright, A. M., & Dunlap, R. E. (2011). The Politicization of Climate Change and Polarization in the American Public's Views of Global Warming, 2001–2010. The Sociological Quarterly, 52(2), 155–194. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.2011.01198.x

McDermott, R. (2019). Psychological Underpinnings of Post-Truth in Political Beliefs. PS: Political Science & Politics, 52(2), 218–222. https://doi.org/10.1017/S104909651800207X

Robinson, S. E., Ripberger, J. T., Gupta, K., Ross, J. A., Fox, A. S., Jenkins-Smith, H. C., & Silva, C. L. (2021). The Relevance and Operations of Political Trust in the COVID-19 Pandemic. Public Administration Review, 81(6), 1110–1119. https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13333

Sandal-Önal, E., Hellmann, J., & Zick, A. (2023, June 5). The Role of Uncertainty in the Support for Governmental Policies. Paper presented at the 1st Interdisciplinary Uncertainty Conference: Navigating Uncertainty: Preparing the Society for the Future, Bielefeld University.

Sandal-Önal, E., Ayanian, A.H., Eden, M., Mokros, N. & Zick, A. (2023). Does Uncertainty about the War in Ukraine pave the way to Support Military Action? Paper presented at the ECPR General Conference, Charles University, September 4-8, 2023, Prague.

Unsworth, K. L., & Fielding, K. S. (2014). It's political: How the salience of one's political identity changes climate change beliefs and policy support. Global Environmental Change, 27, 131–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.05.002

Weinberg, J. (2022). Can Political Trust Help to Explain Elite Policy Support and Public Behaviour in Times of Crisis? Evidence from the United Kingdom at the Height of the 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic. Political Studies, 70(3), 655–679. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321720980900

Zick, A., & Sandal-Önal, E. (2023). Uncertainty in Conflicts between Societal Groups – A Social Psychological View (Vol. 4) [Working Paper]. https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2979155

« Back to overview