Center for Uncertainty Studies Blog

On November 12, 2024, the Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS) hosted its third Research Afternoon, gathering a diverse range of speakers and discussions on how uncertainty shapes various fields, from corporate compliance and white-collar crime to stroke recovery and complex planning problems.

The Role of Uncertainty in White-Collar Crime and Corporate Compliance - Michael Lindemann

Michael Lindemann opened with a deep dive into the challenges of prosecuting white-collar crime in Germany, spotlighting the “HSH Nordbank” case (2013-2019). In this case, the trial was settled with a payout. Plea agreements like this one are very common in white-collar cases in Germany. Lindemann pointed out the risky nature of business transactions as well as the necessity for law to provide guidelines such as those he presented in his talk. He also elaborated on how hindsight bias can influence jurisdiction.

The talk raised further questions about the “Business Judgment Rule,” typically used in corporate decision-making, and whether a similar concept could be applied in legal settings to accommodate the uncertainties compliance officers face. In the discussion, the audience reflected on the ambiguities of “right” decisions and the challenges of the German federal law system.

Navigating Uncertainty After Cerebral Damage - Katja Werheid

Katja Werheid’s presentation shifted focus to the health sector, where uncertainty is often a part of daily reality, especially in cases of brain injuries. Discussing the neurological impacts of strokes and the severe uncertainty patients face during recovery, Werheid highlighted both the immediate medical response to strokes and the prolonged psychological challenges that often follow. Notably, post-stroke depression (PSD) affects approximately 33% of survivors, further complicating the recovery journey.

Werheid introduced Merle H. Mishel’s “Uncertainty in Illness Theory.” She also noted that for many stroke survivors, post-traumatic growth and therapies focused on acceptance and commitment can help patients turn uncertainty into an opportunity for self-discovery. The discussion emphasized how patients can undertake a journey from acknowledging health constraints to eventually accepting them. While German stroke units seem to be quite well equipped, long-term care still needs improvement.

Michael Römer: Accounting for uncertainty in complex planning and decision-making problems

The last talk of the afternoon covered uncertainty in planning and decision-making problems. Michael Römer introduced the concept of the “Flaw of Averages” (Sam L. Savage) and how deterministic models often fail to include the uncertainty that complex decisions entail. By using Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic models, and machine learning in his approach, Römer illustrated how accounting for uncertainty can improve decisions.

Römer's examples, including the familiar “Newsvendor Problem” as well as applications at Bethel (healthcare) and airline scheduling, highlighted how uncertainty can be incorporated directly into decision models, providing more robust solutions than solely deterministic methods. Römer’s research regarding uncertainty also explores the role and value of flexibility in complex planning situations like personnel scheduling. In the discussion, further challenges such as the modeling of competition and working without historical data, e.g., relying on expert predictions, were addressed.

Conclusion

The Third Uncertainty Research Afternoon provided compelling insights into how uncertainty influences decision-making and behavior across fields. Lindemann, Werheid, and Römer each demonstrated how incorporating an understanding of uncertainty can foster innovative approaches—whether in law, healthcare, or operational planning.

The discussion continues – for example at the Uncertainty Lunches on November 13 and January 15, 12:30 at Univarza. Stay tuned for upcoming research events and visit the CeUS website for more news and details.