Center for Uncertainty Studies Blog

On October 8th, the ninth Uncertainty Talk took place at ZiF. CeUS was pleased to welcome Ian Scoones, Professorial Fellow at the Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex. From 2018 to 2023, Scoones served as the principal investigator of the ERC Advanced Grant project, PASTRES (Pastoralism, Uncertainty, and Resilience: Lessons from the Margins), which he also references in his newly published book at ZiF.

"Navigating Uncertainty: Radical Rethinking for a Turbulent World" critiques risk-based approaches to uncertainty. Emphasizing the significance of the topic, Scoones invoked the works of scholars like Nowotny and Latour while proposing a new paradigm for addressing the challenges of uncertainty. His research on pastoral livestock keepers across various countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, the UK, the USA, India, and Southern Africa) serves as a foundation for his argument to "open up towards uncertainty."

Throughout his talk, Scoones explained why a shift is urgently needed: the 2008 financial crash, the pandemic, natural disasters, and the increasing threat of climate change have demonstrated that traditional models and risk-based strategies are insufficient for navigating uncertainty. He argued that these strategies often create a disconnect between predictions and day-to-day experiences. For example, frontline health workers and farmers worldwide frequently rely on local strategies. Scoones advocates for learning from these practices, promoting decentralization, and fostering solidarity and care, rather than imposing top-down expert solutions. The challenges mentioned not only framed his talk but also form the basis of his book.

Scoones also referenced feminist author Rebecca Solnit, highlighting the idea of finding a "sense of possibility inside uncertainty" as a core aspect of his proposed paradigm. While he did not offer specific rules or practices, he aimed to raise awareness of the social embeddedness of change and the inevitability of uncertainty. He also provided further examples, ranging from ancient religious and cultural perspectives (e.g., in Hinduism) to Western philosophical ideas.

The talk ended with a vibrant discussion. Audience members raised questions about modeling, power structures, and how to prevent ignorance in the new framework which Ian Scoones presented. He reinforced the idea that co-construction, trust-building, and a focus on politics of care are key to addressing these issues.

As the CeUS continues its series of Uncertainty Talks, Ian Scoones’ ideas will undoubtedly serve as a touchstone for further discussions on how think about navigating uncertainty in the face of today’s global challenges. The talk available to stream on the CeUS YouTube channel. Stay tuned for more insights from future CeUS Events and ongoing research.