Center for Uncertainty Studies Blog

CeUS Pressespiegel #22: Von „konstruktivem Patriotismus" zum Jugendwort des Jahres

2025-11-11T15:33:29+01:00

Herzlich willkommen zur 22. Ausgabe des CeUS Pressespiegels!

In diesem Format stelle ich spannende Artikel aus dem deutschsprachigen Journalismus rund um Unsicherheit, Ungewissheit und ihre gesellschaftlichen Auswirkungen zusammen. In dieser Woche geht es neben Zeitdiagnosen aus der Soziologie und Sozialreformen auch darum, was das Jugendwort des Jahres mit Unsicherheit zu tun hat.

Der Spiegel bietet mit „Was für die Liebe gilt, gilt auch für die Politik" (06.11.2025) einen Ritt durch aktuelle Zeitdiagnosen aus den Sozialwissenschaften an. Aufhänger ist hier das Erscheinen des neuen Buchs von Aladin El-Mafaalani mit dem Titel „Misstrauensgemeinschaften". El-Mafaalani betont die Bedeutung von Vertrauen zur Bekämpfung politischer Unsicherheit und sieht heute Misstrauen an Boden gewinnen – ähnlich wie Reckwitz, Frevert oder auch Amlinger und Nachtwey. Angenehm dürfte hier sein, dass El-Mafaalani im Gegensatz zu den genannten Autor:innen mit nur 128 Seiten auskommt.

Vertrauen, aber auf was? Dennis Chiponda freundet sich in der taz mit der Idee eines „konstruktiven Patriotismus" (Jan Christopher Cohrs) an („Ich, ein Patriot?", 08.11.2025). Konstruktive Patrioten, das seien „Menschen, die ihre Heimat lieben, andere nicht abwerten, demokratische Werte vertreten und kritisch den Staat beobachten." Chiponda hofft, dass auch bei deutschen Linken die Bereitschaft wächst, über solche Angebote zu sprechen und nicht – wie 1989 – die Chance auf geteilte Werte zu verpassen.

Ein Streitthema, bei dem zurzeit große Unsicherheit herrscht, sind die immer wieder diskutierten Sozialreformen. Christine Fuchsloch, Präsidentin des Bundessozialgerichts, wird von der FAZ zu den anstehenden Veränderungen interviewt („Das Rentenalter muss irgendwann angehoben werden", 09.11.2025). Die Ausführungen von der Sozialrichterin Fuchsloch fallen gewissermaßen deeskalierend aus: Totalverweigernde Bürgergeldempfänger habe sie praktisch nicht erlebt, psychische Probleme und Handicaps überwögen. Sie wünscht sich Gespräche über Reformen und Komplexitätsabbau ohne Angst.

Joshua Schößler betitelt gerade so („Angst", FAZ, 23.10.2025) seinen Artikel zum Jugendwort des Jahres „das crazy". Auffällig sei, dass alle vergangenen Jugendwörter und auch viele in der aktuellen Auswahl entweder mit „gruppenbezogenen Unsicherheiten" (cringe, goofy) oder aber mit Sex zu tun haben (goonen). Möglicherweise setzt sich auch hier die aktuelle Tendenz durch, das Gesellschaftliche vor allem als etwas Unsicheres, Prekäres zu denken – oder aber Jugendwörter bilden tatsächlich jugendliche Themen ab.

Aus dem Bereich der Bücher und anderer Medien sei diese Woche der Roman „Die Wut ist ein heller Stern" von Anja Kampmann empfohlen. Die Kritik in der Süddeutschen Zeitung („Ein großes Gedicht", 23.10.2025) stellt neben der spürbar lyrischen Grundierung des Werkes auch die Unsicherheit des Szenarios in den Vordergrund: Der Roman spielt in einem Hamburger Varieté während des Nationalsozialismus.

Kommen Sie sicher durch die Woche!

Adrian Strothotte

When Certainty Hides and Randomness Helps: Concluding the fifth Uncertainty Research Afternoon

2025-05-15T21:21:41+02:00

On May 12, 2025, the Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS) at Bielefeld University held its fifth Uncertainty Research Afternoon, continuing its tradition of interdisciplinary scholarly exchange. The event, available both in-person and online, brought together researchers to examine uncertainty across different academic fields. The afternoon featured three presentations that explored uncertainty through educational science, mathematics, and historical analysis.

Uncertainty in Educational Contexts: Visibility and Social Practices

Saskia Bender, professor for Educational Science at Bielefeld University, began with her presentation, "The (In)Visibility of (Un)Certainty in Educational Contexts." Drawing from research on inclusive classrooms, Bender argued that societies often work to keep certainty invisible, particularly within democratic structures.

Her research showed that despite goals for inclusive education, practices that reinforce social status continue through what she called "arenas of particularization." Bender observed that cooperative practices in inclusive classrooms often don't achieve their intended outcomes, with students needing help sometimes rejecting assistance.

Bender presented the concept of "covering as a social practice," drawing from Laclau and Mouffe's theory of articulation. She proposed that democratic societies use covering to manage conflicts, hiding structural stability. This creates tension as societies promote inclusion while being structurally unable to fully achieve it.

In the discussion, participants questioned what causes exclusion when inclusion should happen. Bender noted that despite changing expectations, teaching strategies remain largely unchanged. When asked about signs that certainties are becoming more visible, she pointed to the increased transparency of covering practices, though teaching methods have evolved little. The discussion also explored how uncertainty appears differently between peer relationships and teacher-student dynamics.

The Paradox of Uncertainty in Machine Learning

Benjamin Gess, professor for mathematics at TU Berlin, shifted the focus to computational uncertainty with his presentation, "Taming Uncertainty and Profiting from Randomness in Machine Learning." Gess took on the challenge of explaining complex mathematical concepts without using formulas, making machine learning accessible (and entertaining) to a diverse audience.

Gess explained supervised learning by describing how neural networks process and categorize data. He outlined how machines learn through "gradient descent," a process that surprisingly works despite theoretical predictions suggesting it shouldn't. The presentation highlighted the counterintuitive phenomenon of "overparameterization" – the finding that increasing network size (to billions of parameters as in models like GPT-3) can improve performance rather than causing overfitting.

Particularly interesting was Gess's examination of randomness in machine learning. He explained how randomness enters these systems through initially random weights, randomly deactivated neurons, and stochastic gradient descent. Rather than hindering performance, this randomness can actually improve it by helping algorithms find "flatter" minima and cross tipping points in training loss landscapes.

The discussion revealed knowledge gaps in the field. When asked about the importance of hidden layers for model performance, Gess acknowledged that "some architectures just work better" without complete theoretical explanations. Most notably, when questioned about optimal forms of stochastic gradient descent, Gess candidly admitted that such questions "cannot really be answered mathematically," emphasizing that the field largely operates through empirical knowledge and experience rather than complete theoretical understanding. His acknowledgment that "it's interesting that this is not explainable and maybe not understandable at all" highlights a profound insight about uncertainty in a field designed to manage it.

Historical Dimensions of Uncertainty: Rumors in Premodern Communication

The colloquium concluded with Jan Siegemund's (postdoc, Bielefeld University) historical analysis, "Rumors in Flux: Handling Uncertain News in Changing Communication Systems (ca. 1400-1800)." Siegemund's ongoing project examines how premodern merchants dealt with uncertain information during three major transformations: the media revolution, the communications revolution, and European expansion.

Siegemund redefined rumors as "communication of marked uncertainty," using both quantitative content analysis and close reading to identify markers of uncertainty in historical texts. His findings showed that wars, plagues, information about deaths and whereabouts of people as well as everyday life generated substantial rumors. Of particular interest was the relationship between rumors and emerging markets, where the need for current information increased alongside growing economic interdependence through e.g. credit systems.

Siegemund's approach differs from conventional rumor research that tends to focus on effects or views rumors as "improvised news" during crises. Instead, he analyzes rumors through linguistic markers of evidentiality (information source) and epistemicity (credibility assessment).

In the discussion, participants explored the historical evolution of rumor communication, with Siegemund noting that first attempts at textual analysis show more uncertainty markers in 18th-century letters than in 16th-century documents. When asked about different types of rumors across contexts like warfare and trade, Siegemund acknowledged the dominance of military contexts in existing rumor research while advocating for more attention to everyday rumor communications.

The discussion also addressed the social function of rumors, drawing on Norbert Elias's theory to consider rumors as mechanisms for controlling social inclusion and exclusion. Participants identified historical counterparts to today's "water cooler effect," with wells and wash houses serving as potential premodern spaces for informal information sharing.

Connecting Disciplines Through Uncertainty

The fifth Uncertainty Research Afternoon demonstrated how uncertainty functions as a connecting concept across disciplines. From educational practices that try to hide uncertainty, to machine learning systems that benefit from randomness, to historical communication patterns that mark uncertain information, the presentations revealed uncertainty not just as a problem to solve but as a fundamental part of knowledge itself. As moderator Silke Schwandt noted during the discussion, democratic systems allow uncertainty to a certain extent – suggesting that uncertainty might even serve as "a normatively positive thing in democracies." This observation opens new avenues for research into the relationship between political structures and knowledge frameworks.

The Center for Uncertainty Studies continues to facilitate cross-disciplinary dialogue, providing a space for researchers to develop integrated approaches to uncertainty as both theoretical concept and practical reality. Stay tuned for more here on the CeUS Blog.

Herbert Dawid im Interview mit WDR5 "Neugier genügt"

2025-03-28T10:00:00+01:00

Herbert Dawid, Professor für VWL, Wirtschaftstheorie und Computational Economics an der Universität Bielefeld. © Uni Bielefeld.

Am 19.03.2025 war CeUS Founding Director Herbert Dawid zu Gast in der WDR5-Sendung "Neugier genügt". Dort sprach er über aktuelle Forschung aus dem Kontext des CeUS, "unsichere Zeiten", und Unsicherheit als Innovationsmotor. Hören Sie den Beitrag in der WDR-Audiothek nach – oder lesen Sie hier fünf der wichtigsten Take-Aways.

Unsicherheit kann plötzlich entstehen

Tobi Schäfer (WDR5): Wie hartnäckig muss eine unsichere Lage sein? Ist das ein schleichender Prozess, bis man wirklich von unsicheren Zeiten spricht? Braucht es da langen Anlauf für?

Herbert Dawid (CeUS): Nein, ich denke, ein Unsicherheitsgefühl kann sich auch sehr plötzlich einstellen. Wenn es radikale Änderungen gibt, dann ändert sich das auch sehr schnell. Manchmal ändert sich aber auch überraschend wenig. Wir haben z.B. gerade über das Zentrum eine Befragung amerikanischer Wähler, vor und nach den Präsidentenwahlen jetzt im November, gemacht. Wir haben drei Wochen vor und drei Wochen nach der Wahl 300 Personen danach befragt, wie sie sich bezüglich gewisser wie Themen, Inflation, Gesundheitssystem, aber auch über den Ausgang der Wahl fühlen. Wir hätten eigentlich erwartet, dass die Unsicherheit nach der Wahl deutlich zurückgeht, was man aber überhaupt nicht beobachten kann, interessanterweise. Sie baut sich langsam aus. Tatsächlich nimmt die Unsicherheit über die Zeit zu und wird auch nach der Wahl nicht weniger.

Unsicherheit kann vernünftig sein

Tobi Schäfer (WDR5): Würden Sie sagen: Die Unsicherheit löscht erstmal den Mut und befeuert die Vernunft?

Herbert Dawid (CeUS): Vernunft kann natürlich beides sein. Es kann durchaus vernünftig sein, ein Risiko einzugehen und zu sagen, mir ist klar, mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit funktioniert das nicht, aber mit kleiner Wahrscheinlichkeit habe ich nachher einen sehr hohen Marktanteil generiere für mich einen ganz hohen Ertrag. Dann ist es vernünftig, genau das zu tun, auch wenn es mit hoher Unsicherheit behaftet ist. Das kann also vorkommen, aber in vielen stärker etablierten Märkten und wenn relativ klar ist, wie die technologische Aufstellung ist, ist eine reine Marktunsicherheit tatsächlich schädlich.

Verbindung von Kompetenzen als Stärke des Bielefelder Ansatzes

Tobi Schäfer (WDR5): In der unsicheren Zeit ist jeder für sich allein unsicher – könnten theoretisch Austausch über Unsicherheit und ein gemeinsames Entgegenwirken dann eher etwas bringen, als wenn jeder seine Unsicherheit für sich auslebt?

Herbert Dawid (CeUS): An sich ja. Das Versicherungsprinzip, dass Unsicherheit sozusagen vergemeinschaftet und damit natürlich für den Einzelnen reduziert, ist an der Stelle sehr sinnvoll. Was wir beim CeUS versuchen – und was glaube ich eine der Stärken dieses Bielefelder Ansatzes ist – ist, dass wir sehr viele unterschiedliche, auch methodische Kompetenzen verbinden. Wir würden gerne besser verstehen, wie genau diese Frage, die sie gestellt haben, sich beantworten lässt. Wir haben Unsicherheit der Einzelnen, aber die interagieren ja, sie kommunizieren miteinander, sie erzählen sich Dinge, da gibt es Social Influence , das heißt die Unsicherheit des einen überträgt sich auf den anderen. Die Frage, was in der gesamten Wirtschaft passiert oder auch nur auf einem Markt, ist eine schwierige Frage. Die kann man, indem man das Einzelverhalten versteht, noch nicht direkt beantworten und da braucht man dann auch gewisse Modelle. Oft sind das Simulationsmodelle, es können aber auch mathematische Modelle sein, bei denen man versucht, genau das zu verstehen. Wie wirkt sich das Zusammenspiel der Unsicherheit der Einzelnen auf die Gemeinschaft? Das ist eine, finde ich, sehr, sehr wichtige Agenda und das ist wissenschaftlich noch nicht gut verstanden.

Der persönliche Umgang mit Unsicherheit ist nicht einfach zu beeinflussen

Tobi Schäfer (WDR5): Wie kann man denn am besten mit Unsicherheit für sich persönlich umgehen? Also nicht unbedingt als Unternehmen in der Wirtschaft, sondern jeder für sich zu Hause in seinem Mikrokosmos. Denn da spielt Unsicherheit ja auch eine große Rolle. (...) braucht man auch eine private Investitionsbereitschaft auch in unsicheren Zeiten? Muss man dann einfach mutiger sein?

Herbert Dawid (CeUS): Wenn man sich den Schnitt eines Erwartungswertes (wie die Ökonomen es nennen) ansieht, dann ist es richtig, dass, wenn man eine höhere Risikobereitschaft hat, man im Schnitt besser aussteigt. Aber das hat natürlich auch etwas damit zu tun, dass es für den Einzelnen, wenn höhere Unsicherheit dabei ist, schlecht enden kann. Da lautet die Frage: Kann man damit umgehen, will man damit umgehen? Das hat viel mit der individuellen Einstellung zu tun. In unseren Befragungen sehen wir ganz klar: es gibt große Unterschiede, wie einzelne Personen mit Unsicherheit umgehen, auch wie einzelne Personen zum Beispiel mit widersprüchlichen Informationen umgehen. Das ist ein Punkt, der sehr interessant ist. Wenn man am Beginn sehr wenige Informationen hat und man bekommt dann ein paar Informationen und dann bekommt man nochmal eine zusätzliche Informationen, die aber der ersten Information widerspricht, ist die Frage, ist man nachher eigentlich sicherer oder ist man unsicherer als vorher? Das ist eine Frage, die rein empirisch unterschiedlich ausfällt. Manche Leute sind nachher sicherer und denken sich "Okay, dann liegt die Wahrheit wohl in der Mitte" und andere sind einfach verunsichert. Das sind, würde ich sagen, Persönlichkeitsmerkmale. Als Wissenschaftler müssen wir die einfangen und wahrnehmen. Ich bin nicht sicher, ob man sie verändern kann.

Völlige Sicherheit wäre auch keine Lösung

Tobi Schäfer (WDR5): Zum Schluss doch nochmal ein Blick in die Zukunft. Viele sehnen sich natürlich nicht nach unsicheren, sondern endlich mal wieder nach sicheren Zeiten. Wird das überhaupt nochmal so kommen oder wird es immer irgendwie eine Art von Unsicherheit geben?

Herbert Dawid (CeUS): Also ich glaube, die Idee "früher war alles viel sicherer", ist wahrscheinlich nicht ganz richtig. Ich glaube, es gab immer viel Unsicherheit und ich glaube auch nicht, dass wir zu Zeiten kommen, wo alles ganz sicher ist. Das wäre vielleicht auch ein bisschen langweilig (...) wenn alles sehr, sehr genau prognostizierbar ist, verringert das auch die Chancen und das macht vielleicht vieles im Leben weniger interessant. Aktuell gibt es ein bisschen zu viel Unsicherheit. Da würde auch ich hoffen, dass das wieder etwas weniger wird.

Neugierig geworden? Schauen Sie doch bei den CeUS Working Papers herein, informieren Sie sich über Veranstaltungen wie den CeUS Research Afternoon oder lesen Sie die aktuelle Ausgabe unseres Pressespiegels.

– Die Zitate aus dem Beitrag wurden für bessere Lesbarkeit leicht überarbeitet. –

CeUS Pressespiegel #12: German Angst, Wissenschaft und Urheberrecht in Zeiten von KI

2025-03-14T17:48:22+01:00

Herzlich willkommen zur zwölften Ausgabe des CeUS-Pressespiegels!

In diesem Format stelle ich alle zwei Wochen spannende Artikel aus dem deutschsprachigen Journalismus rund um Unsicherheit, Ungewissheit und ihre gesellschaftlichen Auswirkungen zusammen.

"Spiel mit der Unsicherheit" – so bringt die FAZ (07.03.2025) die Politik Donald Trumps auf den Punkt, die auch in diesem Pressespiegel als Thema nicht fehlen kann. Es geht um Trumps Umgang mit der Wissenschaft und die Frage einer möglichen Abwanderung von US-Forscher:innen, unter anderem auch nach Deutschland. Zentraler dürfte dauerhaft jedoch die allgemeinere Frage nach Sicherheit in wissenschaftlichen Beschäftigungsverhältnissen werden.

Mit Erwartungen an die Wissenschaft setzt sich "Mit Unschärfe leben" (Die ZEIT, 12.03.2025) auseinander. Die Autor:innen arbeiten hier verschiedene Missverständnisse im Umgang mit Wissenschaft auf. Der Pandemie-Grundsatz "Follow the Science" wird relativiert, und adäquate Wissenschaftskommunikation rückt als Herausforderung ins Zentrum, denn auch Wissenschaft ist unsicherheitsbehaftet.

Die taz interviewt den Sprachwissenschaftler Ulrich Hoinkes zur deutschen Angst vor der Veränderung und einer spezifischen "Angstkultur" ("Die Angst vor Krieg lähmt uns", 12.03.2025). Er betont dabei besonders den Zusammenhang von Angst und einer Zuversicht, Herausforderungen begegnen zu können, die Grundlage für Handlungen und ein neues Gefühl der Stärke werden kann. Angst vor einem baldigen Krieg in Deutschland hält er für wenig sinnvoll und befürwortet stattdessen neue Diskussionen über Sicherheit.

Gastautorin Noëmie Beck-Schär stellt in der NZZ die hochaktuelle Frage nach der Grenze zwischen computerassistierten und computergenerierten Schöpfungen ("Schaffst du noch, oder generiert die KI schon?", 12.03.2025). Damit ist das Kernproblem der aktuellen Auseinandersetzungen über Urheberrecht in Zeiten von maschinengenerierten Inhalten angesprochen. Prompts seien in diesem Kontext keine hinreichende menschliche Eigenleistung für die Gewährung eines Urheberrechts – jedenfalls nach Aussage des U.S. Copyright Office.

Adam Soboczynski hat Christian Kracht für Die ZEIT in Kolkata, Indien, getroffen und berichtet in "Weit hinter die Grenzen unserer Welt" (06.03.2025) über die Begegnung mit dem Romanautor. Der Text enthält neben einer Würdigung von Krachts Werk auch einen Exkurs in dessen von Unsicherheit geprägte Kindheit und seine Verbindung zu Indien. Am Rande: Krachts neuer Roman "Air", der am 13. März erschienen ist.

Haben Sie ein schönes Wochenende!

Adrian Strothotte

Innovation, Interdisciplinarity and Economics – Interview with CeUS Founding Director Herbert Dawid

2025-01-24T10:23:54+01:00

Herbert Dawid is Chair for Economic Theory and Computational Economics at the Department of Business Administration and Economics at Bielefeld University and one of three Founding Directors of CeUS, © Philipp Ottendörfer.

CeUS was founded about two years ago – What are your highlights so far?

We had a number of great events, but my personal highlight was the conference on ‘Navigating Uncertainty: Preparing Society for the Future’ in summer 2023. The conference did not only highlight how strongly many aspects of our lives are affected by uncertainty, but also showed how different the approaches to analyze effects of uncertainty are in different disciplines. I found this really interesting and something you hardly realize when attending standard disciplinary conferences. It also shows how challenging the agenda of CeUS is to foster fruitful exchange between researchers from different disciplines who study various aspects of uncertainty.

What role does Uncertainty play in your research?

Uncertainty plays a crucial role in essentially all my research topics. Part of my work deals with analyzing innovation activities of firms. The outcomes of these activities are typically characterized by a large amount of uncertainty, not only because it is hard to predict if it is possible to develop a desired new technology or product and how long this might take, but also because the success of an innovation on the market is often very uncertain. Another area of my research, where uncertainty plays a large role is the study of which macro level patterns emerge in socio-economic systems from the interaction of (heterogeneous) individual agents. Non-linearities, feedback effects and path dependencies can make it very hard to predict the dynamics of the entire system even if we have a good understanding of the (statistical) properties of individual behavior. In this sense, uncertainty here might be generated on the macro level.

To what extent is interdisciplinarity important in your work?

In my work I have always cooperated with colleagues from different disciplines, such as Mathematics, Computer Science, Engineering or Law. The work on the navigation of uncertainty and its societal effects in the context of CeUS has reinforced my conviction that interdisciplinary work is needed to make progress there. Expertise from areas such as Psychology or Social Science is essential and a really interesting interdisciplinary group has emerged in Bielefeld to work on this.

What would you like to accomplish at the Center for Uncertainty Studies in the future?

In my view CeUS is mainly a platform for fostering exchange between colleagues interested in uncertainty related research. I hope that CeUS can improve our common understanding of how to analyze the effects of uncertainty and can help to initialize interesting new cooperations in this domain.

To sum it up: Do you have specific strategies in your personal or professional life to deal with uncertainty?

I try not to be too much concerned about the uncertainty I am facing. Generally speaking I tend to have a positive perspective on life, so I try to see the chances of uncertainty rather than focusing on potential negative outcomes.

Thank you very much!

Reflecting on 2024: A Year of Insights, Collaboration, and Exploring Uncertainty at CeUS

2024-12-23T12:15:16+01:00

© Tessa Gengnagel, Philipp Ottendörfer, Universität Bielefeld.

As 2024 comes to an end, we at CeUS want to take the opportunity to reflect on the year’s many events and look ahead to what awaits us in 2025.

January to July: Art, Awards and Uncertainty Events

2024 on the CeUS blog began with articles featuring the research of historian Christian Wachter. In addition to his interview in the "Meet ..." series, he reported on the conference “ACM Hypertext 2023” The conference centered on the vision of hypertext as a foundational tool for interconnected thinking, embracing complexities and contingencies. It reframed notions of uncertainty not as obstacles but as productive pathways to new perspectives and insights.

In March, CeUS Founding Director Andreas Zick guided visitors through the exhibition "Stellung beziehen: Käthe Kollwitz, Mona Hatoum" at the Kunsthalle Bielefeld. Due to high demand, the Director of the IKG offered an additional date, where he discussed the relationship of the two featured artists to uncertainty, marginalization, and war.

In June, CeUS member Christina Morina was awarded the Deutscher Sachbuchpreis 2024. Her book "Tausend Aufbrüche" (A Thousand New Beginnings) received Germany’s most prestigious non-fiction award for showing “how a very different understanding of democracy developed in East and West Germany since the 1980s.”

June was a particularly busy month at CeUS. It featured the inspiring Uncertainty Talk, "The Ambivalence of Humanistic Knowledge Production in Times of Digital Upheaval" by Tessa Gengnagel (CCeH), as well as the second Uncertainty Research Afternoon. Among others, Sina Zarrieß presented linguistic research on uncertainty in large language models (LLMs).

In July, we were pleased to interview artist Irina Valkova and discuss her work. Her associated art project, INHABITING UNCERTAINTY, is based on the history of a refugee family from Odessa, whom she sheltered in her atelier for three months at the beginning of the war. Having connected to CeUS through the Uncertainty Lunches, Valkova aims to integrate science, everyday life, and art. We at CeUS are delighted about this collaboration and look forward to expanding it in 2025.

The second Uncertainty Talk of the year explored similar themes. In her talk "Wounds that Don't Heal Easily: Profiling the Language of Uncertainty," Maida Kosatica examined trauma and uncertainty in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the widespread diaspora formed during and after the war from 1992 to 1995. The lively discussion afterward centered on whether to remember violence or move on and leave it behind—a question that remains sadly relevant today.

August to December: Collaborations, New Formats and a Look into the Future

After a well-deserved summer break, the CeUS-supported workshop "Containerisation and Dock Labour: Work, Security, and Intermodal Transport in an Uncertain Setting" kicked off the second half of the year. Led by Klaus Weinhauer, researchers from six countries specializing in history, anthropology, and economics analyzed and discussed the transformation of port work in North America, Europe, and Asia.

In September, CeUS celebrated the launch of the CeUS Pressespiegel. In this blog format Adrian Strothotte highlights the most compelling articles from German newspapers on the topic of uncertainty and its societal implications. The series saw seven iterations in 2024 and will continue to be released every two weeks in 2025. You can read the latest episode here.

In October, the Center for Uncertainty Studies welcomed Ian Scoones to the ZiF in Bielefeld. His presentation on "Navigating Uncertainty: Radical Rethinking for a Turbulent World" (2024) critiqued risk-based approaches to uncertainty. He advocated for learning from local practices, promoting decentralization, and fostering solidarity and care. The talk concluded with a vibrant discussion on modeling, power structures, and how to prevent ignorance within new frameworks for navigating uncertainty.

As seasonal weather conditions in Bielefeld worsened, November brought the third Research Afternoon, featuring diverse research topics: from white-collar crime and the role of uncertainty in cerebral damage rehabilitation to the challenges of capturing uncertainty in complex decision-making. The event offered compelling insights into how uncertainty influences behavior across disciplines. We are excited to continue the series with the Uncertainty & Creativity Afternoon on January 27, 2025.

In addition to the Uncertainty Afternoons, the lunches will continue to provide a space for discussion and networking in 2025. The CeUS team is also thrilled to host further inspiring guests at the Uncertainty Talks and to participate in events like the conference "Building Models of Change in the Sciences and the Humanities: Capturing Dynamic Phenomena", which will take place on March 12–14, 2025, in Bielefeld.

CeUS wishes you happy holidays and a wonderful start to the new year!

CeUS Founding Director Andreas Zick on art, interdisciplinarity and conflict dynamics

2024-11-29T13:03:57+01:00

Andreas Zick (Scientific Director of the IKG) at the Conference "Navigating Uncertainty - Preparing Society for the Future" in 2023. © Universität Bielefeld / Philipp Ottendörfer

CeUS was founded about two years ago – What are your highlights so far?

The highlight for me is that we have established a rapid framework for exploring the depths of uncertainty. Since 2013, I am scientific Director of the Institute for Interdisciplinary Research on Conflict and Violence (IKG) at Bielefeld University, and I have rarely witnessed colleagues coming together so swiftly across disciplinary, methodological, and theoretical boundaries to engage in a compelling research topic. Researchers also seem to be seeking a sense of security. Another significant highlight was my observation that new facets and layers of uncertainty continually emerge at the events we organize, revealing innovative modes of navigation. Additionally, I had the opportunity to lead guided tours of the exhibition "Taking a Stand" at the Kunsthalle Bielefeld, which showcased the works of Käthe Kollwitz and Mona Hatoum. Both artists address the experiences of individuals living in uncertainty—those affected by war, authoritarian regimes, and unjust power dynamics. Thanks to CeUS and the concepts surrounding the visualization of uncertainty, I gained a deeper understanding of the paintings and sculptures on display. For instance, Mona Hatoum creates large, robust-looking cages made of iron. By examining this art by exploring uncertainty, it becomes evident how fragile these works truly are and how unpredictable the violence that affects individuals can be, even though she does not depict people directly. Interestingly, highlights themselves are a fascinating manifestation of uncertainty; they shine brightly precisely because we do not anticipate them.

What role does Uncertainty play in your research?

In conflict and violence research, we encounter many uncertainties and insecurities - fortunately, in German we have two words for what English-language research understands as "uncertainty". We have researched uncertainties well because conflicts within and between societies go hand in hand with uncertainties. As part of our research into uncertainty, which is characterised more by uncertainty about facts and future developments, we have now drilled deeper, since we take uncertainty-research more seriously. For example, we used data from a representative population study in spring 2023 - known as the Mitte Study - to analyse the influence of crisis uncertainty and crisis insecurity on attitudes towards democracy. We found that people in Germany who are uncertain due to polycrises - i.e. interconnected crises such as inflation, climate change and other crises - use two modes to assess the state of democracy: Some want to close the country, set borders and argue in favour of "Germany first", so to speak. Others argue in favour of opening to advice from outside and appeal for solidarity with those who are more affected by crises. Those in lockdown mode are also in favour of opening up but would like to do so in order to strengthen the nation. Those who open to uncertainty in crises rely on the power of democracy and are less concerned with themselves. They are also much more crisis-proof. That is one example. In research into violence, we have also done a lot of research into how people deal with uncertainty. Violence creates uncertainty for the victims of violence and uncertainty is an instrument of violence, but a controlled instrument by the offender. These are just a few examples. We must also recognise that in the past, particularly in social sciences, we have perhaps applied too simple a view of human nature and too narrow a methodological paradigm: We have tended to assume that people seek control first because they find uncertainty unpleasant and threatening. We have assumed that states strive for maximum control because people seek to tame uncertainty. We have tended to use methods that can make good predictions with probability models and have been annoyed when data is fraught with uncertainty. The radical uncertainty research that we want to develop at CeUS emphasises the opportunities of uncertainty and asks openly and with interest how uncertainty is navigated so that it changes.

To what extent is interdisciplinarity important in your work?

I am the worst possible interviewee to answer this question. I head an interdisciplinary institute and forbid myself from taking a narrow, disciplinary view. My professorship is in educational science, I did my doctorate and habilitation in psychology and I have spent many years researching in the social sciences, so I am also a co-opted member of the Faculty of Sociology. Does that unsettle you? Too little disciplinary excellence? I am glad that we are opening up to more disciplines in conflict and violence research. What we observe and even what we can recognize as science is shaped by history. Bielefeld is a place of interdisciplinarity, and the buildings alone force us to constantly cross paths with people from other faculties and institutes and communicate. We are concerned with conflict dynamics and the question of how groups in conflict perceive, ignore, utilize, create, and overcome uncertainty to assert their interests, identities, and values. Most conflict dynamics have developed historically, so I need expertise in the field of history. Structural conditions are often decisive, for example, when conflicts arise because of limited resources. Therefore, I require expertise in sociology. I could go through other disciplines and, basically, we also need methodological expertise because our statistical models must deal with uncertainties.

What would you like to accomplish at the Center for Uncertainty Studies in the future?

It should be a virtual and real space where we come together as researchers from all over the world and from all disciplinary perspectives and establish uncertainty research. I believe that uncertainty research has the potential to become a field of research similar to interdisciplinary conflict and violence research. I have already accompanied the development of research fields such as migration, acculturation, right-wing extremism or prejudice and racism research and, based on this experience, I am confident in the matter. Uncertainty research does not fall out of the sky. It builds on knowledge, not least on research into risks or security. In my opinion, the fact that it has potential also results from what is likely to come. In times when, for example, technology and natural science have reached the point where they want to allow even more uncertainty - think of AI or autonomous driving - and in times when crises are again increasingly accompanied by wars, as well as times when climate change is progressing faster than scientific models and findings, it is perhaps appropriate to establish this field of research. Or to put it another way: it would be wrong not to deal with uncertainty, which is not the opposite of certainty and risk minimisation.

To sum it up: Do you have specific strategies in your personal or professional life to deal with uncertainty?

I didn't become a researcher because I was looking for certainty, but because many things were uncertain for me; quite independently of the question of how secure the job is. But perhaps uncertainty also attracts me more, because in conflict and violence research we meet people who live in massive insecurity and uncertainty; think of migrants who set off on their journey. I learn from them. It hurts even more that they tend to be seen as a risk by society. And my strategy of building spaces such as CeUS myself and not waiting until you get research spaces has certainly been a good one. I've already built a few rooms and almost never with collateral.

Thank you very much!

CeUS Pressespiegel #5 vom 22.11.2024

2024-11-22T15:17:08+01:00

Herzlich Willkommen zur fünften Ausgabe des CeUS Pressespiegels.

In diesem neuen Format stelle ich alle zwei Wochen spannende Artikel aus dem deutschsprachigen Journalismus rund um Unsicherheit, Ungewissheit und ihre gesellschaftlichen Auswirkungen zusammen. Über der Berliner Kunst- und Kulturszene schwebt angesichts der geplanten Kürzungen durch den Senat weiter eine Wolke der Unsicherheit.

Die taz stellt in "Die Traumfabrik der Bühnen" (18.11.2024) den Bühnenservice Berlin vor, der Bühnenbilder für die Berliner Opernhäuser und auch das Deutsche Theater herstellt. Den stark ausgelasteten Manufakturbetrieb stellen nun weitere Kürzungen vor eine Herausforderung.

CeUS Founding Director Herbert Dawid thematisiert im Interview ("Unsicherheit kann wachstumshemmend sein", 21.11.2024) mit der Rhein-Neckar-Zeitung den Einfluss politischer Unsicherheit auf die Wirtschaft. Fazit: Jenseits der negativen Folgen von Unsicherheit für Investitionen, sollten wir versuchen, verschiedene Modi im Umgang mit Unsicherheit besser zu verstehen.

"Es gibt meist schon klassische Indizien für eine Affäre" (SPIEGEL, 14.11.2024) begleitet eine Privatdetektivin bei ihrer Arbeit. Der Beitrag gibt nicht nur Einblicke in die Unsicherheiten der Kundinnen und Kunden, sondern auch in die Grenzregionen zwischen Persönlichkeitsrechten und "berechtigtem Interesse" an einer Überwachung anderer Personen. Was wollen wir über unsere Partner:innen wirklich wissen?

Diesen Faden nimmt Reinhard K. Sprenger in "Fallstricke der Transparenz" (NZZ, 22.11.2024) auf. Er schreibt hier darüber, wie Transparenznormen immer auch zu neuen Intransparenzen führen. Eine fehlende Toleranz für (politische) Unsicherheit ebnet für den Managementberater den Weg in ein "totalitäres Zwangssystem".

Zum Schluss die traditionelle Medienempfehlung: Die Historiker:innen John Guy und Julia Fox haben ein Buch über die englische Königin Anne Boleyn (150? bis 1536) geschrieben ("Anne Boleyn war Königin von England, bis ihr Mann sie wegen Hochverrats köpfen ließ", NZZ, 11.11.2024). "Jagd auf den Falken" porträtiert die aufstrebende junge Frau bis zu ihrer Hinrichtung als eine von sechs aufeinanderfolgenden Ehefrauen König Heinrichs VIII. Eine Geschichte, die sich nicht ohne Verweis auf dessen "tiefsitzende Unsicherheiten" erzählen lässt.

Haben Sie ein schönes Wochenende!

Adrian Strothotte

CeUS Founding Director Silke Schwandt on the Center for Uncertainty Studies and her research

2024-08-15T00:00:01+02:00

CeUS Founding Director Silke Schwandt at the Conference "Navigating Uncertainty - Preparing Society for the Future" in 2023. © Universität Bielefeld / Philipp Ottendörfer

What are main goals of CeUS and how is the Center organized to connect researchers from so many disciplines?

The Center for Uncertainty Studies is a platform for academic cooperation. We want to invite all members of CeUS, who are mainly located at Bielefeld University, to attend different formats of collaboration and networking such as Uncertainty Talks, Uncertainty Lunches, or our Research Afternoon which takes place once a term. During the research afternoons three colleagues from different fields and disciplines talk about the many ways in which uncertainty plays a role in their respective research. We have organized three of these events so far and have experienced very productive discussions which widened our understanding of uncertainty.

Becoming a member of CeUS is easy. Just contact us at ceus@uni-bielefeld.de! We are keen on expanding our network and learn from each other.

CeUS was founded about a year ago – What are your highlights so far?

There were many highlights, but my personal favorite are the research afternoons in which I gain many new perspectives and insights into different concepts and aspects of uncertainty. I enjoy the lively discussions and the productive irritation that I am confronted with.

What role does Uncertainty play in your research?

In my own research, uncertainty plays a role as a research topic as well as in my methodological reflections. One of my research projects deals with the modes of navigating uncertainty in medieval legal courts in England. Law and legal practice are closely linked to different forms and types of uncertainty. Laws and rules are often formulated in a way which leaves a certain aspect of the case open to allow decisions to be made. This leads to a necessary uncertainty on the side of the litigants. But uncertainty also plays a role in the social context of the courts. The early English legal system knows several different courts of different regional extent, such as village courts, hundred courts, or county courts, for example. Within this system, many people who are involved in different roles in court all know each other rather well which potentially diminishes the necessary uncertainty of a legal decision when the judge or the jury is part of a higher social class than the defendant (e.g. if the case involves tenants and landlords). Hence, it can be interesting and strategically relevant for litigants to increase the unpredictability and thereby the uncertainty.

Regarding my work in the field of Digital History, the uncertainty that I am dealing with comes from the innovation of research methods and objects through datafication. Here, the uncertainty is consciously introduced into the research process to achieve scientific innovation.

To what extent is interdisciplinarity important in your work?

Interdisciplinarity is built into my work on many levels. Within the Digital Humanities it is essential since no projects can be conducted in just one discipline. Methodological and epistemological reflections are genuinely interdisciplinary, since different competencies are necessary from different realms: from the humanities as well as from computer science. But additionally, our approach to Uncertainty Studies itself is genuinely interdisciplinary since the problems and challenges cannot be solved by one discipline alone. The interdisciplinary discussions are key to our joint projects.

What would you like to accomplish at the Center for Uncertainty Studies in the future?

For the future, I want the Center to remain a buzzing hub for academic exchange, where we develop ideas for new interdisciplinary projects which let us to deal with uncertainty in different academic and social realms.

To sum it up: Do you have specific strategies in your personal or professional life to deal with uncertainty?

Most of the time, I become quiet and try to reflect the situation in order to remain in control. Personally, I am not very good at embracing the chances of uncertainty.

Thank you very much!

CeUS Member Christina Morina's "Tausend Aufbrüche" awarded Non-Ficition Book of the Year 2024

2024-06-12T12:25:52+02:00

Christina Morina's analysis of ideas of democracy in East and West-Germany titled "Tausend Aufbrüche" (A Thousand New Beginnings) was awarded with the "Deutscher Sachbuch Preis 2024" on June 11th at the Elbphilharmonie in Hamburg. The prize, which carries an endowment of €25,000, was awarded for the fourth time and is considered the most prestigious non-fiction award in Germany.

The jury stated: "There is a broad consensus that democracies around the world are in crisis. Yet the question of what it actually means to _live_ democracy is often pushed into the background. Using sources that have received little attention to date, Christina Morina shows how a very different understanding of democracy developed in East and West Germany since the 1980s. Her methodically sophisticated and eye-opening contemporary historical analysis based on letters, petitions and leaflets gives a voice to citizens of East and West Germany. With this book, Morina offers surprising and necessary insights to spur current social debate. Her book risks a great deal, but without polarising – democracy is a process, not a condition."

Christina Morina is Professor of General History with special emphasis on Contemporary History (Zeitgeschichte) at Bielefeld University and a member of the Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS). Her research on democracy, political culture in Germany and the history of the far right contributes to understanding uncertainty in an interdisciplinary way – an approach that is central to CeUS. We congratulate Christina Morina on this outstanding achievement and look forward to further exchanges of ideas and thoughts within the CeUS framework.

Meet ... Dirk Kohlweyer

2024-03-11T18:16:14+01:00

Dr. Dirk Kohlweyer is a Research Associate in Economic Theory and Computational Economics at the Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.

What connects you to Bielefeld University?

After completing my master's degree, I was eager to delve deeper into the intersection of Economics and Computer Science. This led me to pursue a Ph.D. at Bielefeld University, renowned for its pioneering work in Computational Economics. My decision was significantly influenced by my keen interest in economic modeling and the application of computational techniques in economic research.

The Chair for Economic Theory and Computational Economics at Bielefeld University, led by Prof. Dawid, presented an unparalleled opportunity. The department is at the forefront of integrating advanced computational methods with economic theory, a synergy that perfectly matched my academic pursuits.

Computational Economics, being a relatively new but rapidly evolving field, is not yet a mainstay in all economics departments. Bielefeld University stands out as a leading institution in Germany in this specialty. Joining Bielefeld University allowed me to build upon a substantial foundation of expertise and contribute to a field that is reshaping how economic analysis and modeling are conducted.

What role does Uncertainty play in your research?

Uncertainty plays a pivotal and multifaceted role in my research, especially considering the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of economic systems: Technological innovations, for instance, bring about disruptive changes by their very nature, which can have far-reaching implications for markets, industries, and entire economies. My research is dedicated to gaining a deeper understanding of how economic actors navigate various uncertainties and the extent to which their attitudes towards uncertainty shape key economic decisions, behaviors, and outcomes. This involves examining the strategies and mechanisms employed by individuals and organizations to manage and respond to uncertain economic environments, and how these approaches impact their decision-making processes and subsequent economic activities.

What would you like to accomplish in a Center for Uncertainty Studies?

The Center for Uncertainty Studies has significantly broadened my horizons, fostering opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration with leading researchers across various social sciences. My aspiration is to make substantive contributions to these fields by employing a combination of empirical research and simulation methods. Through this methodology, I aim to effectively identify, distinguish, and model the diverse sources of and strategies for managing uncertainty. I believe, this approach will facilitate the identification and more nuanced characterization of strategies for navigating uncertainty across diverse disciplines.

To what extent is interdisciplinarity important in your work?

The field of computational economics is fundamentally interdisciplinary, drawing essential insights not only from Economics and Computer Science but also from a broader range of disciplines, especially within the social sciences. This interdisciplinarity is crucial in my work, given the complex and interconnected nature of today's economic systems. By integrating diverse academic perspectives, particularly from other areas of social sciences, my research benefits from an enriched and expanded scope. This fusion of disciplines enhances the depth and breadth of analysis, allowing for a more thorough and effective understanding of complex economic environments. Such a comprehensive approach is indispensable for accurately interpreting and predicting economic phenomena in an interconnected world.

To sum it up: Do you have specific strategies in your personal or professional life to deal with uncertainty?

What could possibly be more monotonous than a life scripted down to the last detail, where surprise is as rare as a unicorn? Predictability might have its comforts, but it's the uncertainty that adds the spice of excitement and opportunity. As for strategies, I don't adhere to a rigid playbook. Instead, I prefer to see uncertainty as a canvas of possibilities, a space where the unknown becomes a playground for innovation and discovery. It's in this uncharted territory that the most interesting chapters of our stories are written.

Thank you very much!

Christian Wachter, Thinking in Connections: Embracing Uncertainty as Freedom

2024-02-14T08:23:40+01:00

A Short Conference Report on “ACM Hypertext 2023”

In the heart of Rome, a city woven with numerous layers of history and tales, the 34th Association for Computing Machinery's conference on Hypertext and Social Media found its perfect backdrop last September.¹

This is because Rome mirrors the essence of hypertext that is commonly defined as a dynamic web of interconnected information nodes, allowing for unlimited growth and flexible formation of new interconnections over time – just like Wikipedia or the World Wide Web. Rome’s vast wealth of monuments has also been considered in ever-new constellations. Think of ancient monuments such as the Colosseum, the Hippodrome, or the Pantheon that were erected in different periods but today symbolize the ancient heritage of Roma Aeterna. The Middle Ages, Early Modern, and Modern times reshaped the city’s surface and led to new functions and perceptions of older monuments within the now-grown network of architectural heritage. Take the Colosseum, once a grand amphitheater, evolving over centuries to serve new roles from provisional housing in early medieval times to a consecrated martyr site in the 18th century. This development situated the Colosseum into the city’s ensemble of Christian sites.

This notion of flexibility, of contingent possibilities to arrange information and form meaning, summarizes the spirit of the five-day workshop and conference program at the Bibliotheca Hertziana, Max Planck Institute for Art History. Here, hypertext was explored through different lenses: Workshops delved into “Human Factors in Hypertext,” “Narrative and Hypertext,” “Open Challenges in Online Social Networks,” “Web/Comics,” and “Legal Information Retrieval meets Artificial Intelligence.” The conference tracks were dedicated to “Interactive Media: Art and Design,” “Authoring, Reading, Publishing,” “Workflows and Infrastructures,” “Social and Intelligent Media,” and “Reflections and Approaches.” Altogether, this marks a rich tapestry that might seem to lack coherence at first glance.

But far from that, researchers from all over the world discussed hypertext not only as a concept for (digital) infrastructure, network media, or non-linear narratives. Instead, hypertext was broadly addressed as a mode of thinking, as Dene Grigar (Vancouver, USA) emphasized in her workshop keynote on Hypertext Art and editing systems. She illustrated how hypertext literature, video games, and other non-linear art formats are products of thinking in connections. Readers/Users do not precisely know where the multifaceted storytelling brings them. They must find their own paths through the network of possible constellations through interactive navigation. This exploration of uncertainty is not merely a byproduct but a deliberate design, because authors thereby communicate that multiple layers of meaning and possibility exist. The conference participants delved into that experience through a wonderful exhibition Grigar and her team set up in place – Hypertext & Art: A Retrospective of Forms.² It showcased many early hypertext art pieces running on original hardware and digitized works, thus offering a tangible connection to the conference discussions.

The exhibition Hypertext & Art: A Retrospective of Forms, curated by Dene Grigar.

1992/93 hypertext novel and game Uncle Buddy's Phantom Funhouse, running on an Apple Classic II and emulated on a tablet computer. This double setup provided both, an original user experience and a modern adaptation for the touch screen.

Media formats and editing tools beyond the rather linear design of traditional texts were subject to many other presentations, and I can only give a glimpse of the rich conference program here. Among the plethora of ideas and projects, one notable example was SPORE, introduced by Daniel Roßner (Hof), Claus Atzenbeck (Hof), and Sam Brooker (London). This tool offers a canvas for authors to craft stories by arranging information blocks in a visual user interface.³SPORE reads these spatial constellations and dynamically suggests new story elements, powered by AI technologies. The tool thus supports authors in finding and forming stories in an iterative – in that sense uncertain – process. Frode Hegland (Southampton) also emphasized hypertextual media as tools for thought with a maximum of freedom.⁴This becomes accelerated in Virtual Reality (VR) environments, which Hegland characterized as “anthropological interfaces.” Drawing inspiration from hypertext pioneer Douglas Engelbart, Hegland characterized hypertext as a tool that augments human intellect – a theme echoed throughout the conference. As one further example in this context, Serge Bouchardon (Compiègne) elaborated on fictional stories for smartphones that work by messaging and notifications.⁵These hypertext adaptations create an interactive experience intertwining with our daily digital routines and, in doing so, playing with concepts of time for narratives.

The conference threads wove through themes of freedom, complexity, and multivocality as productive alternatives to rigid structures of information organization. The keynotes⁶ covered various fields of application for that: Harith Alani (Milton Keynes) focused on tracing sources of misinformation and its proliferation through social media in his keynote on Fact-Checks vs Misinformation. Untangling these complex networks becomes possible through knowledge graph technologies. Identifying biases in AI-generated content was one focus of Jill Walker Rettberg’s (Bergen) keynote on Feral Hypertext Redux, whereas Aldo Gangemi (Bologna) addressed Perspectival Modelling of Human-Centred Knowledge with its network-like patterns. Identifying and highlighting intricate patterns was also applied to historical studies. Megan Bushnell (London) elaborated on medieval books as "organized hypertextuality."⁷ Scholarly editions and translations should respect and unveil networks of information inside the books. Christopher Ohge (London) expanded on this notion by presenting a digital edition project on Mary-Anne Rawson’s anti-slavery anthology The Bow in the Cloud.⁸ Jamie Blustein (Halifax, Canada) shifted the spotlight from text to artwork, introducing the H.A.I.K.U. Touch Archive Project that allows scholars to explore elements of artwork and annotate them in space.⁹

Bridging the boundaries of media with hypertext was another popular topic at the conference. Transmedia storytelling combines multiple media in one overarching narrative experience. This moves stories into mixed realities, as Valentina Nisi (Funchal/Lisbon) put it in her workshop keynote, and is being applied in diverse areas such as tourism, history, or museums. Emily Norton (Tampa) brought geographic elements into play by introducing a digital adaptation of James Joyce's Modernist novel Ulysses. It employs hypertext annotations, an interactive map, and wiki technology, to provide contemporary readers with easier access to Joyce’s text.¹⁰

To be sure, the conference’s 2023 edition covered many more hypertext-related issues – more than I can report in detail here. The rich tapestry of paper topics spanned from further applications of VR, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Social Media methods and content analysis, linked (open) data, games, and locative storytelling, to the history of hypertext. My own contribution focused on revisiting scholarly hypertext.¹¹ It argued that hypertext allows (digital) humanities scholars to craft publication formats that transparently communicate epistemic dimensions of their research in terms of multiperspective demonstrations. When hypertext is visualized – thus multimodal or spatial hypertext – this potential is accelerated because the visual representation unveils the non-linear architecture of argumentation, narrative, and (in the case of data-driven research) data interpretation.

Despite the broad range of topics and approaches, I felt at just the right place to present my work, get inspiration from the community, and engage in stimulating discussions. This is in large part due to a warm-welcoming and highly communicative community, which made it easy to connect. United by a common vision of hypertext as a foundational tool for interconnected thinking, we embraced the complexities and contingencies inherent in our work, viewing these notions of uncertainty not as obstacles but as productive pathways to new perspectives and insights.

Let me end with a remarkable story from the history of the conference. It is an anecdote of uncertainty in itself. For the 1991 edition in San Antonio, Tim Berners-Lee and Robert Cailliau submitted a paper to present a nascent project they have been working on at the CERN for two years: the World Wide Web. Their paper was rejected and a live demonstration Berners-Lee and Cailliau managed to set up at the venue did not spark much interest. The WWW was deemed too simplistic.¹²Yet, as it would soon blossom into the foundational fabric of our digital world, this story is a vivid reminder that the seeds of transformative ideas often lie in unexpected places.

References

1) https://ht.acm.org/ht2023/

2) For an online version of the exhibition visit: https://the-next.eliterature.org/exhibition/hypertext-and-art/.

3) https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3603163.3609075

4) https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3603163.3609036

5) https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3603163.3609081

6)https://ht.acm.org/ht2023/programme/keynotes/

7) https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3603163.3609074

8) https://christopherohge.com/the-making-of-an-anti-slavery-anthology-mary-anne-rawson-and-the-bow-in-the-cloud/

9) https://web.cs.dal.ca/~jamie/HAIKU/

10) https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3603163.3609051

11) https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3603163.3609072

12) https://first-website.web.cern.ch/node/25.html

Meet ... Christian Wachter

2024-01-15T15:20:13+01:00

Dr. Christian Wachter is a research associate at the working area Digital History, Department of History at Bielefeld University.

What connects you to Bielefeld University?

In 2022, I joined Bielefeld University as a PostDoc – a move that felt like a natural fit for me. Since my master’s studies, I have been deeply immersed in the fields of theory of history and digital history, culminating in my doctorate on digital hypertext and multimodal publication formats for historical scholarship. Few universities fully embrace the breadth of digital historical research, but Bielefeld’s Digital History working group, led by Silke Schwandt, stands out as a pioneering formation with a wealth of innovative research activities. Its theoretical and methodological focuses, particularly in text mining and visualization of humanities research data, have attracted me a lot, and they align closely with my own interests while providing ample opportunities for dialogue.

Moreover, Bielefeld University’s rich tradition in theory of history and its deep commitment to interdisciplinary research resonate with my approach to combining data-driven, computational methods with theoretical considerations and hermeneutic work in the humanities. Bielefeld offers an excellent synergistic environment for this kind of research, making me excited to have found a new academic home here.

What role does Uncertainty play in your research?

My current research focuses on a digitally-assisted methodology for exploring discourses about democracy during the era of the Weimar Republic. This period was marked by immense political and social conflicts, as well as significant economic strains. In historical research, therefore, the crisis narrative has dominated portrayals of Weimar Germany for a long time. In this context, “uncertainty” relates to the struggle for survival of Germany's first democracy, which tragically ended with the establishment of the national-socialist dictatorship. However, since the turn of the millennium, historians have increasingly criticized this one-sided portrayal, shifting focus to the contingency and opportunities of the republic. In this sense, “uncertainty” can be interpreted as a framework of possibilities to be navigated within a contingency history of Weimar.

My project addresses this very aspect. While research has abandoned its strong focus on the enemies of democracy for some time, studying pro-democratic forces still holds significant potential for a more nuanced understanding of the political culture in Germany between the World Wars. In my research, this represents one layer of uncertainty: The meaning of “democracy” was far from clear at that time and was fiercely debated in harsh discourses. Filling the concept with life discursively was one way of navigating uncertainty for historical actors. It was, at the same time, a way to shape the present and future political course of post-war Germany. To better understand democracy as a contingent, thus uncertain, research object through the lens of the press, I examine digitized newspapers, combining quantitative digital methods with qualitative approaches into a “scalable reading” approach.

Recently, an article has been published in the edited volume "Zoomland. Exploring Scale in Digital History and Humanities" (Open Access), where I discuss my project in more detail.

In applying this approach, I aim to contribute to another level of uncertainty, namely methodological uncertainty: Quantitative text analyses cover a wide range of source material but are often blind to the historical context that is crucial for any substantiated interpretation of the analysis results. Qualitative analyses, on the other hand, provide in-depth insights but can miss many relevant primary sources. My goal is to bring the best of both worlds together, tailoring the mixed-methods approach to the polarized newspaper discourses of the Weimar Germany period.

What would you like to accomplish in a Center for Uncertainty Studies?

The great appeal of CeUS for me lies in how the broad umbrella term is illuminated from various angles. For many disciplines and research directions, the category of uncertainty is a shared guiding theme, yet each field focuses on other facets and research questions, requiring specified approaches. This way, uncertainty does not become an essentialized concept but a multi-faceted phenomenon, enabling cross-disciplinary dialogue and mutual stimulation. My research has already benefitted from this a lot, and I hope to further deepen these conversations in the future.

At the same time, CeUS is an excellent place for launching new joint projects. In the discussions among center members, points of contact and ideas emerge that inspire collaborative contacts of competencies and visions. Research on uncertainty thus becomes an emergent activity that serves as a way of navigating uncertainty itself. We are already exchanging such ideas and pursuing new activities. Additionally, the CeUS working papers series provide an attractive platform for introducing these new research initiatives at an early stage into broader discussions.

To what extent is interdisciplinarity important in your work?

Interdisciplinarity is nothing less than at the core of my research. As a historian addressing the political culture of Weimar Germany, I incorporate perspectives from historical research, broader cultural studies and anthropological research. I operationalize discourse-theoretical approaches, which, in my case, are socio-linguistically influenced. Furthermore, the application of digital data-driven research in humanities studies inherently bridges disciplines: It involves programming scripts, annotating digitized texts, statistically analyzing word frequencies and specific word combinations, and other computational techniques. All this becomes integrated with historical interpretation. To put it in a nutshell, my work revolves around theoretical and methodological triangulations.

This orientation immensely benefits from my association with CeUS. There, I learn a great deal from my peers and engage in fruitful exchange about, for example, social-psychological approaches focusing on anthropological constants, social network analyses, and means to test my assumptions through digital modeling techniques. In turn, I try to provide my own ideas and knowledge to these discussions. CeUS is an ideal flexible hub for this type of synergistic inter- and transdisciplinary work.

The first CeUS conference ("Navigating Uncertainty: Preparing Society for the Future") took place in Bielefeld at the beginning of June 2023 – which moments were particularly exciting for you? What do you take away?

One particularly striking memory from the CeUS conference is how well uncertainty functioned as an overarching category. The various involved disciplines and projects found a lively dialogue about an admittedly broad umbrella term. Thematic, theoretical, and methodological bridges remained clearly visible throughout, even though topics like people’s perception of the COVID pandemic, right-wing discourse in Germany post-World War I, or dealing with consumer inflation might seem unrelated at first glance. Consequently, I took away insights from various directions.

Beyond that, Carlo Jaeger’s closing keynote on “Uncertainty in the Anthropocene” offered intriguing insights into decision-making problems at the political level and beyond. His advocacy for “robust action instead of the optimal action” was a fascinating impulse that stimulates our societal debates, especially in an era of multiple crises.

To sum it up: Do you have specific strategies in your personal or professional life to deal with uncertainty?

Uncertainty, as described, is a highly versatile concept. One of its facets that uniquely connects my professional and personal experiences is uncertainty as contingency. My research perspective is shaped by how historical actors deal with a fundamentally open space of possibilities. Openness is also a leading theme for the question of how we can effectively conduct interdisciplinary research on that topic.

Moreover, as an early career researcher and a citizen of our society, I am aware of the challenge of choosing from a vast array of potential actions. I try to explore this space of possibilities through curiosity and exploring different perspectives. In this context, I have always greatly benefited from the exchange of experiences and ideas, especially from others who have been in the same situation as me or who have been a step ahead in life or career. I am very grateful for that, particularly because the exchange has often sparked new ideas. However, this requires me to contribute my own observations and experiences to the dialogue, too, since I believe that only through mutual support can we learn to endure contingency and develop skills to identify possible pathways through this pool of options. Even though no concrete decision can be entirely certain, I think bringing individual expertise and experience into a collaborative setting is an excellent strategy to enable people to confidently choose a direction.

Looking back on 2023 – and into the future

2023-12-22T11:21:56+01:00

Photo Copyrights: Philipp Ottendörfer, imago / Ikon Images / Gary Waters, Universität Bielefeld.

For CeUS, the year 2023 was shaped by exciting developments in the field of uncertainty research at Bielefeld University and beyond. It is worth taking this chance to look back at the key events of the year.

2023 began with a stimulating Uncertainty Talk by Gerd Gigerenzer on "Umgang mit Ungewissheit im digitalen Zeitalter“. This was followed in May with a lecture by guest researcher and CeUS member Jens Zinn, who we also recently featured on this blog.

Following the new website, this interdisciplinary blog was launched to make news available at a glance.

In July, Deutschlandfunk reported on the innovative uncertainty research presented in June at the conference "Navigating Uncertainty: Preparing Society for the Future" organized by CeUS. The focus lay on the question of how uncertainty can be used productively in society. The conference was successful in bringing together and connecting many interesting researchers from different scientific communities.

In September, we were able to congratulate CeUS member Carsten Reinhardt for his participation in the excellent "Residues: Thinking Through Chemical Environments" and his Robert K. Merton Book Award. In addition, this year's Digital Academy "From Uncertainty to Action: Advancing Research with Digital Data" highlighted data-based research methods in the digital humanities with regard to questions of uncertainty research.

In October, the new graduate school "Coping with Uncertainty in Dynamic Economies" (CUDE) was launched, which is closely linked to CeUS and it's activities at Bielefeld University.

One month later, we were able to take a look at current research by Elif Sandal Önal and Andreas Zick from the IKG and also announce the new Uncertainty Events. At the first Uncertainty Lunch, there was an inspiring exchange on new interdisciplinary collaborations.

The CeUS team is already looking forward to the new year 2024: in addition to events such as the second Lunch on January 11 and the Uncertainty Research Afternoon on January 22, we are also looking forward to further interviews as part of the "Meet ..." series, in which CeUS researchers are regularly featured. The series continues in January with historian Christian Wachter. Exciting new Uncertainty Talks also await us later in 2024.

CeUS wishes you happy holidays and a good start to the new year!

Uncertainties and Policy Support: A Brief Look at The Two Ongoing Studies at Bielefeld University

2023-11-10T10:49:40+01:00

by Elif Sandal Önal & Andreas Zick

Independent of legal and structural effects, governmental and political decisions taken during crises or emergencies are received and interpreted through different cognitive and emotional dynamics of citizens (Maor & Capelos, 2023). These lead to support or rejection of policies. The processing of the information relevant to policies also differs, at least, depending on the psychological underpinnings that refer to individual differences (McDermott, 2019) and the characteristics of the crisis context like the level of emergency (Albertson & Gadarian, 2015) or on the way the issue of the policy is framed (e.g., Esses et al., 2013). Intersecting all these factors, uncertainty and the navigation of uncertainties, linked to cognitive and affective dynamics, is of utmost importance, particularly during crises (Zick & Sandal-Önal, 2023). A clear definition of uncertainties and a reliable analysis of the navigation help understand citizens' support for policies. This is also crucial since general modes of navigation are needed in times of global and interlinked polycrises. Two research projects we are conducting in IKG provide different lenses to different facets of uncertainty regarding public support for government policies in Germany. The findings indicate the cruciality of individual and collective uncertainties on political attitudes and behaviors, particularly during crises and emergencies.

Understanding the role of uncertainty in different political groups' policy support

The first project investigates the social-psychological dynamics of supporting or opposing government policies on the hot-debated issues of coronavirus measures, climate change, and migration. Here, different from the methodologies in policy research, we focused on the individual and group-level dynamics of policy support and tested how uncertainty influences individuals' support for these specific policies. Through an online survey with 300 participants (123 female, five diverse, mean age is 31.52), we asked several questions to people to reveal their support for specific COVID-19 measures (general support for the measures in the peak of pandemic, support for wearing masks and vaccination, and the intentions to join a protest against the measures), climate policies, and migration policies. We also asked them whether they were uncertain of their knowledge about these specific policies, the future of themselves and close others, social cohesion, and the world in general.

The study first reveals two uncertainties reported by the participants: the issue-based or informational uncertainty refers to the lack of knowledge about the issues subject to policies in question, and the relational or general uncertainty involves concerns about the future, about social cohesion in Germany and the world as a whole. Expectedly, two uncertainties are positively related. The findings demonstrate interesting interrelations between the variables: The relationship between the uncertainty of knowledge about COVID-19 measures and climate policies is positive, so those who are uncertain about COVID-19 measures are also uncertain about their knowledge of climate policies. As expected, those uncertain about the future and the world support climate policies more. On the other hand, being uncertain about the societal cohesion in Germany is related to a lower support to the government policies about migration. Naturally, public support for government policies during the crises depends on different contextual dynamics like political trust (Macdonald, 2021; Robinson et al., 2021; Weinberg, 2022) or political party preferences or ideologies (Cohen, 2003; McCright & Dunlap, 2011; Unsworth & Fielding, 2014). For this study, we tested whether different uncertainties influence the relationship between political positions and policy support, considering uncertainty impacts individuals' political evaluations (Haas et al., 2020). The findings demonstrate that it is the issue-based or informational uncertainty that has a strengthening impact on this relationship. In other words, the correspondence between individuals' political positions (left or right) and their policy support is getting stronger when they are uncertain about the policy-relevant issues. General or relational uncertainties involving the future, social cohesion, or the world have no influence.

The study is ongoing, and the first results were presented at the International Conference on Navigating Uncertainty: Preparing Society for the Future in June 2023 at Bielefeld University (Sandal-Önal, Hellmann & Zick, 2023).

"I do not know what war means": Understanding emotional and informational uncertainty in support of the German government's military policies during the war in Ukraine.

The Bielefeld Peace Study (BIEFrie) was launched in May 2022 to understand the public attitudes in German society towards the ongoing war in Ukraine with an online survey. 1048 participants (571 female, mean age is 44), mostly from West Germany and with high education, were asked whether they support the German government's policies regarding military support for Ukraine, in addition to the items about the uncertainty on war, peace, and future. Starting from the outbreak of war, the social and political context on the agenda all over Europe was characterized by emergencies and crises (mostly related to resources like energy) expected to fuel a collective uncertainty shared at all levels of society. This collective uncertainty not only appears in the form of a collective emotion portrayed by fear, anxiety, and helplessness before an unknown future but also in an informational dimension whereby people declare their lack of knowledge about the ongoing crises. For this study, we answered whether the support for military-political policies of the German government is related to these collective uncertainties.

The vast majority of the respondents reported having high emotional and informational uncertainty. 75% stated that they are uncertain what the future will look like, while 40% said they are uncertain about what war means, and nearly 55% declared their lack of knowledge about the real reasons for the ongoing war in Ukraine. Considering how to bring peace back again, 47% reported that they have no idea how to restore peace. On the other hand, the majority of participants reported their support for Germany's military actions in favor of Ukraine.

Interestingly, emotional and informational uncertainty about war indicates lower support for military policies, while uncertainty about peace indicates the opposite. Further analyses show that respondents who have high emotional uncertainty do not support military policies because they consider Russia a threat to Europe and are concerned that the war might be expanded. However, this is not the case for those who report high uncertainty about the war. On the other hand, considering Russia as a threat to Europe also explains the relationship between peace uncertainty and higher support for military policies. So, people do not know how to restore peace, considering Germany's military support policies to Ukraine would decrease the Russian threat towards Europe. The scientific report of the study is in progress, while the uncertainty-related findings were presented at various conferences (e.g., Sandal-Önal, Ayanian, et al., 2023).

References

Albertson, B., & Gadarian, S. K. (2015). Anxious Politics: Democratic Citizenship in a Threatening World. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139963107

Cohen, G. L. (2003). Party Over Policy: The Dominating Impact of Group Influence on Political Beliefs. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 85(5), 808–822. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.85.5.808

Esses, V. M., Medianu, S., & Lawson, A. S. (2013). Uncertainty, Threat, and the Role of the Media in Promoting the Dehumanization of Immigrants and Refugees: Dehumanization of Immigrants and Refugees. Journal of Social Issues, 69(3), 518–536. https://doi.org/10.1111/josi.12027

Haas, I. J., Baker, M. N., & Gonzalez, F. J. (n.d.). Political uncertainty moderates neural evaluation of incongruent policy positions.

Macdonald, D. (2021). Political Trust and Support for Immigration in the American Mass Public. British Journal of Political Science, 51(4), 1402–1420. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123419000668

Maor, M., & Capelos, T. (2023). Symposium: Affect and emotions in policy dynamics. Policy Sciences, 56(3), 439–448. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-023-09512-7

McCright, A. M., & Dunlap, R. E. (2011). The Politicization of Climate Change and Polarization in the American Public's Views of Global Warming, 2001–2010. The Sociological Quarterly, 52(2), 155–194. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.2011.01198.x

McDermott, R. (2019). Psychological Underpinnings of Post-Truth in Political Beliefs. PS: Political Science & Politics, 52(2), 218–222. https://doi.org/10.1017/S104909651800207X

Robinson, S. E., Ripberger, J. T., Gupta, K., Ross, J. A., Fox, A. S., Jenkins-Smith, H. C., & Silva, C. L. (2021). The Relevance and Operations of Political Trust in the COVID-19 Pandemic. Public Administration Review, 81(6), 1110–1119. https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13333

Sandal-Önal, E., Hellmann, J., & Zick, A. (2023, June 5). The Role of Uncertainty in the Support for Governmental Policies. Paper presented at the 1st Interdisciplinary Uncertainty Conference: Navigating Uncertainty: Preparing the Society for the Future, Bielefeld University.

Sandal-Önal, E., Ayanian, A.H., Eden, M., Mokros, N. & Zick, A. (2023). Does Uncertainty about the War in Ukraine pave the way to Support Military Action? Paper presented at the ECPR General Conference, Charles University, September 4-8, 2023, Prague.

Unsworth, K. L., & Fielding, K. S. (2014). It's political: How the salience of one's political identity changes climate change beliefs and policy support. Global Environmental Change, 27, 131–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.05.002

Weinberg, J. (2022). Can Political Trust Help to Explain Elite Policy Support and Public Behaviour in Times of Crisis? Evidence from the United Kingdom at the Height of the 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic. Political Studies, 70(3), 655–679. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321720980900

Zick, A., & Sandal-Önal, E. (2023). Uncertainty in Conflicts between Societal Groups – A Social Psychological View (Vol. 4) [Working Paper]. https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2979155

Meet ... Elif Sandal-Önal

2023-10-06T12:16:33+02:00

Dr. Elif Sandal-Önal is a research associate at the Institute for Interdisciplinary Research on Conflict and Violence at Bielefeld University.

What connects you to Bielefeld University?

I started working at Bielefeld University, in IKG, as a guest researcher in 2019, with a research fund provided by Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung, to continue my studies on intergroup relations, othering, and polarization, which had been interrupted in Turkey due to political reasons. In my dissertation, I demonstrated how glorified ingroup identities may fuel hostile, inhumane attitudes toward others and trigger intolerance and polarization at the societal level. IKG, as a pioneering institute for research on intergroup conflict and relevant concepts of discrimination, integration, and similar social and political processes, has been an ideal space for me to continue my studies and pursue my career as a political psychologist. After working on othering and discrimination for a while, thanks to Prof. Andreas Zick and the strong, enriching interdisciplinary tradition of the institute, I expanded my core interests to transnational dynamics and political mobilization of migrants on the one hand and collective dynamics of global crises, political attitudes (democracy/antidemocracy, trust, authoritarianism), and societal divisions on the other. Now, my main research focuses on why and how individuals and groups are inclined to power politics instead of deliberative politics in ordinary and emergent contexts, which centralizes uncertainty and insecurity.

What role does Uncertainty play in your research?

Glynis Breakwell, a well-known British social psychologist, states that despite uncertainty having always been more prevalent than certainty in the history of humanity, the complexity of the communication channels and the incredible speed of information exchange in the digital era makes the 21st century peculiar in terms of societal level uncertainty. Not only the ongoing global polycrises but the ways individuals and social groups give meaning to these are changing, and each attempt to understand the world (which is vital for individuals to adapt) includes a fragment of uncertainty regarding their knowledge about what is going on or regarding their capacity to infer what will happen in the future. Globalized information exchange may open people's horizons to new knowledge, but the amount and the speed not only create doubts about the content of the information (like in the cases of misinformation), but also impairs the sense of control and increases the need for certainty and security. In my research, I try to understand how this situation is radiating into people's support of specific political regimes. I want to see how the ongoing global context involving uncertainties at different levels interacts with individual and group-level political attitudes, emotions, and behaviors. On the other side of the medal, we also know that the states themselves do govern the contexts of crises and discursively construct what is ordinary and what is emergent, and so navigating uncertainty is not only an individual reaction but also a macro-political discourse. In my research on the politics of uncertainty, I would like to demonstrate the interplay of these different uncertainties in daily political dynamics.

What would you like to accomplish in a Center for Uncertainty Studies?

CeUS is an excellent opportunity for understanding the role of navigating uncertainty in societal processes for social and political scientists since it provides a flexible, interdisciplinary, functional, institutional and organizational structure. The concept itself is multidimensional and multilevel, requiring interdisciplinary collaboration to elaborate all its constructive and destructive influences on societies. We conceptualize uncertainty relationally rather than as an essentialist paradigm. This will enable us, the researchers, to benefit from the processes and outcomes of the other disciplines while unraveling the modes of navigating the uncertainty, at different levels and in different contexts. The organizational structure of CeUS facilitates this inter- and transdisciplinary collaboration. This also makes the Center a well-established, promising learning hub for young scientists and researchers interested in uncertainty phenomena.

To what extent is interdisciplinarity important in your work?

I have a bachelor's and a master’s degree in psychology and completed my PhD in political science. The field I align my research on is political psychology, which is, by nature, interdisciplinary. Therefore, the theoretical frameworks and the methodological approaches I utilize in my research require an interdisciplinary perspective. While trying to understand the individual and collective aspects of political attitudes and behaviors, the intersection of psychology and politics is even more enriching, relying on the theories of sociology, social anthropology, or history. I suppose that one of the most crucial aspects of working in an interdisciplinary field is benefiting from critical, decolonial and reflexive modes of knowledge production. So, interdisciplinarity, particularly for a social and political scientist, should be accompanied by critical approaches when dealing with the issues of societal processes.

The first CeUS conference ("Navigating Uncertainty: Preparing Society for the Future") took place in Bielefeld at the beginning of June - which moments were particularly exciting for you? What do you take away?

Firstly, I was impressed by the diversity of perspectives, disciplines, and topics centralizing uncertainty. Ranging from climate change to minority issues or from public health to economics, there was a variety of studies demonstrating how crucial and critical it is to grasp uncertainty, it’s mechanisms, it’s forms, and it’s influences. I realized that apart from being an important space for knowledge production, CeUS can also be a hub that incorporates this colossal potential into well-structured scientific collaborations. Then, apart from the politics of uncertainty studies that correspond to my interests and research areas like uncertain peace or utilization of uncertainty by right-wing politics, Carlo Jaeger's keynote speech, titled "Uncertainty in Anthropocene," was quite exciting and thought-provoking, in stating that achievements of humankind throughout the history to manage or control the uncertainty also led them towards the global uncertainties, in a paradoxical way. I think this was the moment for all of us, the audience, to contemplate our current understandings and visions about the research on uncertainty.

To sum it up: Do you have specific strategies in your personal or professional life to deal with uncertainty?

I can't say I have specific strategies. When I first came to Bielefeld University as a guest researcher, I was a scholar at risk, had a cancelled passport by the Turkish government, an ongoing court case because of signing a petition, was unemployed, had an unfinished dissertation in my hands and a family to take care of. I do not remember any other moment in my life which was that uncertain! But as human beings, we can adapt to changes and generate resilience for an unknown future. My key strategy in navigating this uncertainty was to open myself to a new horizon, a new world, instead of staying inside a comfort zone and closing off. This is a very personal and idiosyncratic experience indeed, but it shows that the unknown, the uncertain does not only bring insecurities but also opportunities. At this point, of course, it is necessary to see behind the stage: solidarity and support are the secret powers to eliminate insecurity from uncertainty.

Thank you very much!

Meet ... Adhen Benlahlou

2023-09-19T09:32:28+02:00

Dr. Adhen Benlahlou is a research associate at the Faculty of Business Administration and Economics / Economic Theory and Computational Economics at Bielefeld University.

What connects you to Bielefeld University?

I've always wanted to bring together my passion for economic models and my wish to apply them as a policy making tool. During my master and doctoral studies, I've gotten into touch with structural econometric models which is an explicit combination of economic theories and statistical models. This method is not limited to the study of objects limited to economics. The discovery of these porosities led me to look for a place where game theory is not limited to one application. Bielefeld University, with its long tradition of interdisciplinarity, was an obvious choice when I looked for a place to conduct a post-doc in line with this desire for openness.

What role does Uncertainty play in your research?

My research lays at the intersection of the economics of networks and the economics of science and innovation. More precisely, how the interactions structure between individuals (researcher, inventors, adopters, etc..) will influence their decisions. Scientific research is uncertain by nature. In a current project, I’m interested by how the PhD advisor's attitude towards uncertainty influences the PhD student's career. This raises an important question in terms of public policy: should we favor young researchers' early exposure to uncertainty?

To what extent is interdisciplinarity important in your work?

Being interested by economics of science, interdisciplinary research has always been at the core of my work. Indeed, it would be difficult for me to study the interactions between individuals producing knowledge without drawing from the sociology of science, as well as discrete mathematics to better understand the structure of networks (graph theory). As my work also has an empirical dimension, it would be difficult for me to abstract from interactions with computer scientists, for instance when it comes to the creation of relevant databases, but also with statisticians.

What would you like to accomplish in a Center for Uncertainty Studies?

CeUS is a fertile ground for collaborations with top researchers from a broad spectrum of the social sciences. I would like to contribute to other fields with quantitative approaches that help to distinguish behaviours arising from, but also responding to, uncertainty. In this way, I believe that ways of navigating uncertainty can be more easily detected and studied in different fields. In addition, exchanges with researchers from different disciplines enrich our understanding of the phenomena involved, as well as the range of questions raised.

The first CeUS conference underlined the fact that uncertainty is a subject studied by many disciplines with different points of view. During the various discussions, it became clear that people from different fields, with different terminology, are interested in the same phenomena. This conference illustrated that dialogue between disciplines is entirely possible, which bodes well for future cross-fertilization between disciplines to improve our understanding of uncertainty.

To sum it up: Do you have specific strategies in your personal or professional life to deal with uncertainty?

For most people, uncertainty is synonymous of unease and insecurity. Recall that research is by definition uncertain, and we never know in advance what our conclusions will be. In order to manage uncertainty in my research, I try to build up a portfolio of more or less uncertain projects to ensure a certain level of production, without being closed to more adventurous projects.

Thank you very much!

Meet ... Gerrit Bauch

2023-08-15T10:00:00+02:00

Gerrit Bauch is a research associate at the Center for Mathematical Economics at Bielefeld University and a member of CeUS.

Dear Gerrit, what connects you to Bielefeld University?

I've always wanted to bring together my passion for mathematical models and my wish to apply it to real-world applications. During my master studies at Heidelberg University, I've gotten into touch with game and decision theory under uncertainty - for me the perfect mix of mathematics and economic application. After some searching it became clear that Bielefeld University offers the perfect place for this kind of academic prospect. Following in the footprints of Reinhard Selten, especially the Center for Mathematical Economics has ever since become a hub for interdisciplinary researchers who aspire to provide the social sciences with formal mathematical foundations - exactly what I have been looking for.

What role does Uncertainty play in your research?

My research deals with imprecise probabilistic information, also known as "Knightian Uncertainty". You see, there's an important difference between situations where probabilities can be quantified or are unknown: Imagine an urn containing 100 balls, either of red or black color respectively. If, e.g., it is known that exactly 50 balls are black, we can assign probabilities for each draw, granting us access to the apparatus of probability theory. In contrast, if the number of black/red balls is unknown, we can't confidently assign precise probabilities to the outcomes. Hence there could be 0-100 black balls and only one out of 101 Bayesian models describes the correct statistics of the urn in question. We thus rather face ranges for the probability of drawing a black ball.

I'm interested in how people (should) cope with Knightian Uncertainty and their theoretical implications.

To what extent is interdisciplinarity important in your work?

Being based at the Center for Mathematical Economics, interdisciplinary research has always been in the center of my post-master career. This is even true beyond the intersection of mathematics and economics. Some of my research touches the realms of linguistics, explaining robustness properties of formal languages when facing errors in communication. In another project, I have been working on a partnership dissolution mechanism used in joint ventures. Eliciting uncertainty as a sufficient driver for an efficient outcome mitigates the importance of court decisions on the assignment of roles among co-owners.

What would you like to accomplish in a Center for Uncertainty Studies?

CeUS and the MODUS initiative have opened my horizon for further interdisciplinary cooperation with top researchers from other social sciences. More concretely, I wish to contribute to other fields with formal approaches that help to quantify and distinguish different sources of uncertainty. By doing so, I believe that modes of navigating uncertainty can more easily be detected and characterized further across different fields. In addition, talking to researchers from different fields unravels instances of real-world approaches to dealing with uncertainty that have not yet been described in economics, sparking new modeling ideas.

The first CeUS conference ("Navigating Uncertainty: Preparing Society for the Future") took place in Bielefeld at the beginning of June - which moments were particularly exciting for you? What do you take away?

The first CeUS conference has stressed that uncertainty is a pervasive topic, relevant to almost every field. It became clear to me that people from many fields follow similar lines of thinking while not yet having been able to combine their thoughts and forces to overcome one of the biggest distresses of our society.

An intriguing idea that especially stood out to me as a decision theorist was a suggestion by Carlo Jäger, the chairman of the Global Climate Forum. Instead of asking politicians for a concrete action to take (such as whether or not to lock-down the country), they can be advised of possible decision rules, describing general qualitative properties of dealing with uncertainty, and asked to pick among those. On that basis, an optimal action to be implemented can be derived.

To sum it up: Do you have specific strategies in your personal or professional life to deal with uncertainty?

For many people, uncertainty goes along with a feeling of unease and insecurity. However, we should not forget that uncertainty also offers opportunities. In that sense, I aim to confine uncertainty to the extent that I feel comfortable, but at the same time stay open for positive surprises.

Thank you very much!

Further info about Gerrit Bauch is available here: https://gbauch.github.io/

Deutschlandfunk berichtet über Uncertainty-Forschung aus Bielefeld

2023-07-18T12:46:01+02:00

Der Deutschlandfunk hat im Rahmen der Sendung „Systemfragen“ unter dem Titel „Vielfachkrisen / Kann Unsicherheit produktiv sein?“ über die vom Bielefelder Center for Uncertainty Studies ausgerichtete Konferenz „Navigating Uncertainty: Preparing Society for the Future“ und die Forschungsinitiative „Modi und Effekte des Navigierens von Unsicherheit in der Gesellschaft“ (MODUS) berichtet.

„Unsicherheit zu spüren muss […] im Zusammenleben nicht zwingend etwas Negatives bedeuten“, meint Professorin Silke Schwandt. Sie kritisiert, „dass Unsicherheit ganz stark negativ konnotiert ist und es darum geht, Unsicherheit zu vermeiden, zu reduzieren, mindestens einmal zu kontrollieren und aus der Welt zu schaffen […]. Wir würden argumentieren, dass Unsicherheit durchaus positive Effekte in der Gesellschaft haben kann und, dass es uns darum geht, anzuschauen, wie das Entscheidungshandeln oder auch die Modes of Navigating, also die Modi des Navigierens von Unsicherheit auf Akteursebene - und damit meinen wir Individuen als auch Kollektive […] - konstruktive Effekte auf Gesellschaft haben können.“

Diese Modi bilden den Schwerpunkt der Forschungsinitiative, an der zahlreiche internationale und interdisziplinäre Forscher*innen beteiligt sind. „Der Wirtschaftsmathematiker Manuel Förster hat z.B. mit seinem Team die Auswirkungen von Verunsicherung auf die Verbreitung von Falschinformationen in einem Modell berechnet. Fazit: Wer sich unsicher ist, ist eher bereit, eine Information zu überprüfen, die er oder sie z.B. im Netz findet. […] Hier kann Unsicherheit dazu führen, dass Menschen nicht so leicht auf Fake News hereinfallen.“

Die Wissenschaftlerin Carolina Falcão demgegenüber hat sich an der Rural Federal University of Pernambuco in Brasilien intensiv mit dem Werk des indigenen Menschenrechts- und Umweltaktivisten Ailton Krenak beschäftigt. Falcão meint, „dass die Menschen in Brasilien tendenziell besser mit Unsicherheit und Ungewissheit umgehen können als hier in Europa […].“

Auch Andreas Zick kommt in dem Beitrag zu Wort: „Wir haben festgestellt, dass die Verunsicherung stark zugenommen hat. Verunsicherung, wie sich z.B. ausdrückt in einem Misstrauen gegenüber politischen Entscheidungen […].“ Die Forschenden um den Direktor des Instituts für interdisziplinäre Konflikt- und Gewaltforschung (IKG) haben im Rahmen der letzten Mitte-Studie herausgefunden, dass mehr als jede fünfte Person in Deutschland (repräsentative Stichprobe) sich aktuell einen Führer wünsche, der das Volk zum Wohle aller regiert. „Das sind Ergebnisse in Krisenzeiten“, hält der Forscher im DLF-Interview fest.

In solchen Krisenzeiten „gilt in Demokratien erstmal das Umschauen nach Expertise, nach Rat, nach Solidarität und Zusammenhalt. Wir haben in den Demokratien lauter Modi des Navigierens, die wir nur nicht nutzen. Das ist etwas, was uns beunruhigt.“

Für Silke Schwandt, deren Kommentar den Radio-Beitrag abschließt, liegt die Kernherausforderung darin, zu verstehen, wo die Verunsicherung liegt, um sie dann vielleicht in eine Zukunftsoffenheit umdeuten zu können. Um noch mehr über die Aktivitäten der Forschungsinitiative zu erfahren, können Interessierte den Beitrag beim Deutschlandfunk nachhören und auch der CeUS Blog begleitet die Forschenden und ihre Arbeit.

Welcome to the Center for Uncertainty Studies Blog

2023-07-12T11:39:11+02:00

CeUS is a knowledge platform for the development of inter- and transdisciplinary "Uncertainty Studies" at Bielefeld University. CeUS documents, connects and presents not only research on "Uncertainty" but also knowledge on this topic in general. It creates a platform for faculties, institutes and research networks that touch the field of Uncertainty Research. In addition to the expansion of existing research foci, new, innovative research ideas are developed.

In the future, this blog will feature news about CeUS events, publications, researchers and activities in the media. The CeUS team welcomes suggestions and comments.